Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

Australia Is Racing to Lock Up the Pacific With Defense Pacts Before China Can

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• Australia has signed a flurry of new defense treaties across the Pacific Islands — including its first mutual defense alliances since 1951 — largely in response to China's growing security footprint in the region.
• China's July 2026 ballistic missile test near Fiji rattled the region but also revealed divisions, with Kiribati and Naoero blocking a collective condemnation despite the latter having a security treaty with Australia.
• CSIS has mapped 56 security arrangements across 14 Pacific Island countries, revealing a security architecture in rapid transition — but one where it remains unclear how Pacific nations themselves would actually behave in a crisis.

Stanford Economists Warn California's Billionaire Tax Could Cost the State More Than It Raises

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• A Stanford NBER working paper finds that seven billionaires — including Peter Thiel and Google's founders — have already publicly left California, removing 30% of the state's total billionaire wealth before the tax even passes.
• The departures could cut projected revenue from $100 billion to $30 billion, and future income tax losses from a shrinking billionaire population could exceed that windfall by roughly $39 billion in present value terms.
• Not all economists agree: Nobel laureates Acemoglu and Stiglitz have signed a letter supporting the measure, arguing adequate public spending on health and infrastructure matters more than retaining a handful of ultra-wealthy residents.

Half of Parents Wrongly Believe Spacing Out Vaccines Is Safer — and the Trump Administration Is Reinforcing That Myth

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• Most Americans still trust long-standing childhood vaccines like MMR and polio, but confidence is sharply divided by party on COVID-19 vaccines, and mistrust is slowly creeping into other vaccines too.
• Half of parents incorrectly believe children are healthier when vaccines are spaced out — a medically unsupported claim that the Trump administration has amplified by ordering the combined MMR vaccine to be split into separate doses.
• Confidence in COVID-19 vaccine safety for pregnant people has dropped significantly since 2022 across both parties, driven partly by the spread of false claims linking the vaccine to miscarriage.

In the News

Most Americans Trust That Elections Will Be Run Fairly — But Republicans and Democrats Worry About Very Different Threats

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• A new Pew survey finds broad bipartisan confidence in election administration ahead of the 2026 midterms, with most voters expecting races to be run well and ballots counted accurately.
• But sharp partisan divides persist on specific concerns: Republicans worry far more about ineligible voters casting ballots, while Democrats are more concerned that eligible voters will be blocked from voting.
• Democratic voters' confidence in mail-in ballots has dropped notably since 2024, and fewer Democrats plan to vote by mail — a shift that could have real electoral consequences.

Analysis

Why Sports Teams and Concert Promoters Stopped Fighting Ticket Scalpers — and Started Charging Their Own Fees

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• For decades, event organizers fought ticket reselling because it effectively eliminated the financial benefits of selling tickets in advance — resellers acted as competitors, driving outcomes equivalent to last-minute sales.
• Electronic tickets changed the equation: by controlling the secondary market through official exchanges, sellers can now collect fees on every resale transaction, making authorized reselling more profitable than any other ticketing strategy.
• The research finds this is great for sellers but bad for fans, who end up worse off than they would be under an open resale market or simple last-minute sales — the fees are a deliberate revenue extraction strategy, not a side effect.

Also Worth a Look

• Malaysia Could Break China's Grip on Rare Earths — But the U.S. Is Losing the Race to Secure It (csis)
• A 'Super' El Niño Could Give California Its Wettest Winter Ever — and the Federal Safety Net Has Never Been Weaker (yale_climate)
• The £7 Billion Cost of Falling UK Migration Is Probably Overstated — and Might Even Be Wrong (lse)
• The Supreme Court May Be About to Gut a 35-Year-Old Rule That Limits Religious Exemptions from Civil Rights Laws (scotusblog)
• Palestinian Citizens of Israel Face a Stark Choice: Vote and Legitimize a System Stacked Against Them, or Stay Home and Lose What Little Leverage They Have (the_conversation)
• Americans Are Eating Out Less Than Ever — and the Restaurant Slump Isn't Just About Prices (gallup)
• Global Health Funding Is Still Shrinking, and Poor Countries Are Running Out of Ways to Cope (think_global_health)