Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

AI Isn't Killing Jobs Overall, But Young Workers in AI-Exposed Fields Are Falling Behind Fast

stanford_digital_econ

• A Stanford study using ADP payroll data finds no broad AI-driven employment collapse, but a widening gap: young workers in highly AI-exposed occupations are losing ground while experienced workers in the same fields are gaining.
• The pattern follows a telling logic — AI appears to substitute for codified, textbook-style knowledge (where young workers rely most) while experience-based tacit knowledge remains hard to replicate.
• The researchers are careful to note this is descriptive, not causal, and that the ADP sample may not generalize — but they've built a live dashboard to track the trends monthly as evidence accumulates.

Foreign exporters absorbed nearly half of the 2025 US tariff shock

voxeu

• When the US imposed sweeping tariffs in 2025, foreign exporters absorbed nearly half the cost by cutting their prices rather than passing the full burden to American consumers.
• This finding challenges the simple claim that tariffs are purely a tax on domestic consumers, but also undercuts the idea that they're a free lunch — Americans still paid significantly more.
• The result varies by country and sector, with some exporters absorbing more than others depending on their market power and reliance on US demand.

A Peer's Suicide Raises a Teenager's Risk of Self-Harm by Nearly 50%, New Research Finds

nber

• A new study using South Carolina administrative data finds that when a student dies by suicide, their peers are nearly 50% more likely to receive a self-harm diagnosis — consistent with the idea that suicide is socially contagious.
• The effects are uneven: white boys show the largest increases in both mental health care use and criminal behavior, while students with no prior mental health history are more likely to turn to felony offending than to seek help.
• Deaths from assault or accidents produce no comparable spike in self-harm, strengthening the case that the effect is specific to suicide contagion rather than grief or stress from any peer death.

In the News

Iran Was Already Running Out of Water. War Will Make It Much Worse.

wri

• Iran was already in a severe water crisis before the conflict began, using over 80% of its renewable water resources annually, with Tehran's reservoirs falling to 12% capacity last year after a prolonged drought.
• War amplifies water crises: military strikes have already damaged desalination plants, and research shows that water scarcity, conflict, and infrastructure destruction form a self-reinforcing cycle — each worsening the others.
• The broader Middle East, where 83% of the population faces extreme water stress, is particularly vulnerable, and longer-term fixes like desalination treat symptoms rather than the underlying mismanagement driving the crisis.

Analysis

When Bankers Had to Risk Their Own Fortunes, They Were Better at Avoiding Crises — With One Big Catch

nber

• A new study of the 1893 banking panic finds that when bank managers faced unlimited personal liability for losses, they proactively wound down risky institutions before they failed — a kind of self-imposed orderly resolution that modern regulators try to enforce through compensation clawbacks and "living wills."
• The effect was driven by individual exposure: managers with more personal wealth at stake were most likely to voluntarily exit, suggesting skin-in-the-game worked as intended at the firm level.
• But the same mechanism that made individual banks safer made the broader economy more fragile — managers pulled back on lending during downturns to protect themselves, amplifying credit crunches and highlighting a fundamental tension in bank regulation.

Also Worth a Look

• Abortion Bans Changed Sexual Behavior — But Not Enough to Prevent Unwanted Births (promarket)
• New Medicaid Cuts Could Strip $60 Billion From Hospital Payments Across 37 States (kff)
• Trump Is Asking the Supreme Court to Let Him Finish Building a White House Ballroom That Courts Say He Had No Authority to Start (scotusblog)
• A $100,000 Fee on International Student Work Permits Would Hand the H-1B Program to Its Worst Abusers (eig)
• Most borrowers don't know how bad their loan rate is — and simply showing them the data helps them negotiate better deals (nber)
• College Is a Marriage Market, and That's a Big Reason Why Privilege Is Passed Down (nber)
• Calling 988 Saves Calls, But Probably Not Lives — New Research Finds No Drop in Suicide Rates (nber)