Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

A New Economic Model Says AI Could Cause 12% Unemployment or Barely Register by 2030 — and We Don't Know Which

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• Researchers from Anthropic and UVA modeled three AI scenarios through 2030: in the extreme case, GDP grows 15% annually but one in five knowledge workers loses their job; in the modest case, GDP grows just 0.5% and unemployment barely budges.
• Even in bad scenarios for workers, average wages rise — because non-knowledge workers benefit substantially while cognitive workers take the hit, raising sharp questions about distribution and policy.
• A survey of 11,000 Americans found median expectations track the middle "substantial change" scenario, suggesting the public anticipates meaningful but not catastrophic disruption.

Europe's 'Posted Workers' Scheme Is Bigger Than Migration — and It's Costing Local Workers Jobs

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• The EU's 'posted workers' policy — which lets firms temporarily send employees abroad under home-country labor rules — has grown larger than conventional EU migration, accounting for 2% of the EU workforce and 30% of intra-EU trade in services.
• Because posted workers are paid under origin-country rules and exempt from destination-country collective agreements, French firms can hire them for ~30% less than local workers doing the same jobs — leading to a 3% drop in domestic employment in exposed regions, with no wage recovery a decade later.
• Posted workers hurt local jobs without cutting wages, because firms substitute cheaper posted labor rather than renegotiate contracts — while sending-country firms, especially small service businesses, enjoy sharp profit and sales gains when they start posting workers abroad.

Israelis Think the U.S. Is Giving Too Much Aid to Gaza. Palestinians Think It's Not Nearly Enough.

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• A new Pew survey finds a stark divide: most Israeli Jews say the U.S. provides too much humanitarian aid to Gaza, while 70% of Palestinians in the West Bank say it's not nearly enough — with virtually no middle ground on either side.
• On U.S. military assistance to Israel, Palestinians overwhelmingly say it's too much (69%), while Israelis are more split, with about half saying the level is about right.
• The survey, conducted during the spring 2026 Iran war and its aftermath, also reveals a sharp Jewish-Arab divide within Israel itself, with Arab Israelis far more critical of U.S. policy and Trump than their Jewish counterparts.

In the News

Only 1 in 5 Israelis and Palestinians Think a Two-State Solution Is Possible

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• A new Pew survey finds just 17% of Israelis and 21% of Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem believe Israel and an independent Palestinian state could coexist peacefully — with majorities on both sides saying it simply isn't possible.
• Those who see hope cite economic interdependence, the logic of separation, and the inevitability of eventual peace; skeptics on both sides say their differences — over land, religion, and identity — are too deep to bridge.
• The survey was conducted in spring 2026, during and just after an Israel-Iran war, offering a rare window into Palestinian public opinion that Pew hasn't been able to capture in years due to security concerns.

Analysis

Alberta Has Been Almost Entirely Rat-Free for 70 Years. Here's How It Did It.

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• Alberta is the largest rat-free inhabited area on Earth, a status it achieved by moving fast in the early 1950s to seal a narrow entry corridor along its eastern border before rats could establish a breeding population.
• The province built a 'rodent surveillance state' combining mandatory inspections, public reporting hotlines, aggressive poisoning campaigns, and eventually warfarin bait — accepting real costs to humans and animals upfront in exchange for long-term eradication.
• The results are striking: Alberta now spends $500,000 a year on rat control with negligible damage, while neighboring Saskatchewan spends $1.2 million annually and still suffers $15 million in agricultural losses — a vivid case study in the value of early, decisive action.

Also Worth a Look

• AI Isn't Just Helping Kids Cheat — It May Be Stunting How They Think and Relate to Others (democracy_journal)
• Most Americans Think the Trump-Media Relationship Is Bad — They Just Disagree on Who's to Blame (pew)
• AI Models That Resist Being Shut Down Aren't Trying to Survive — They're Just Finishing the Task (the_conversation)
• Half of All H-1B Visa Workers Are Concentrated in Just Four States — and the Gap With the Rest of America Is Widening (hoover)
• China Is Quietly Gaining Ground in Chipmaking Equipment — Except Where It Matters Most (cset)
• Did the Trump Commerce Department Quietly Lower Tariffs on Pasta to Fight Food Inflation? (csis)
• Most Americans Think the Government, Media, and Tech Companies Are All Hiding Important News From Them (pew)