Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

For the First Time, Most Young Americans Say They're More Scared Than Excited About AI

pew

• A new Pew survey finds 52% of Americans are more concerned than excited about AI — up sharply from 37% in 2021 — with young adults crossing the majority threshold of worry for the first time.
• 71% of Americans now believe AI will lead to fewer jobs over the next two decades, up from 64% in 2024, with the sharpest jump among adults under 30.
• Young adults stand out not just for their growing fear of job loss but for a broader pessimism: they're most likely to think AI will be bad for society and say chatbots hurt their own creativity as often as they help it.

AI Is Taking Over the Lab, and It's Already Designing Cancer Drugs Humans Would Never Have Thought Of

knowable

• Automated 'biofoundries' — labs where AI designs experiments, robots run them, and machine learning interprets results — are compressing drug and chemical development from years to months, with one AI-designed cancer antibody showing it's 70,000 times more likely to target tumor cells than healthy ones.
• The field is still maturing: biological data is messy and unstandardized, full end-to-end AI automation remains elusive, and significant technical work lies ahead before the technology reaches its potential.
• The same openness that makes the technology exciting — including a 'lab for hire' model letting anyone order experiments online — raises serious biosecurity concerns, as regulators struggle to keep pace with a field moving at breakneck speed.

Prediction Markets Are Booming, But Their Insider Trading Problem Is Harder to Catch Than You'd Think

harvard_corpgov

• Prediction markets differ from stock markets in a key way: insiders can sometimes know the exact outcome of a contract (will it resolve at $0 or $1?), meaning they have every incentive to trade immediately on inside information rather than waiting — which breaks the timing-based detection methods regulators use in equity markets.
• Standard surveillance tools like "win rate" analysis also mislead in prediction markets, because buying a contract priced at $0.95 should result in a win 95% of the time — so high win rates aren't inherently suspicious the way they would be in stocks.
• The authors — a Kalshi enforcement head and a Wharton accounting professor — argue that prediction market platforms need entirely new surveillance frameworks built around post-settlement analysis and trader-level profit measurement, not borrowed equity-market tools.

In the News

China's Strategy for the Xi-Trump Summit Is Simple: Keep It Vague, Keep It at the Top

hoover

• A rare U.S. congressional delegation that visited China in July found that Beijing is deliberately pushing all difficult issues — trade, Taiwan, the South China Sea — into the September Xi-Trump summit, using high-level pageantry as a way to avoid hard answers on specifics.
• China's approach, which officials call 'head-of-state leadership,' mirrors tactics Xi has used with Putin: get leaders to manage the relationship directly, bypassing bureaucracies that might press harder on sanctions, technology bans, or military behavior.
• The delegation's key takeaway was an 'inside-outside voice' dynamic — China loudly proclaims it wants stability and summitry while quietly continuing coercive actions against Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan, betting that Trump will be more accommodating than the U.S. system.

Analysis

Satellite Images Reveal Russia's Economy Is Doing Worse Than Official Statistics Suggest

voxeu

• Russia's official economic statistics show surprising resilience since the invasion of Ukraine, but researchers are using satellite data — nighttime light emissions and industrial activity — to get an independent read on what's actually happening.
• The satellite evidence suggests Russia's economy is underperforming what Kremlin figures claim, with activity in key regions lagging behind official GDP growth numbers.
• This matters because Western policymakers designing sanctions need accurate data on whether economic pressure is actually working.

Also Worth a Look

• Trump's Push to Split the MMR Vaccine Could Undermine Global Immunization Efforts, Even If It Never Takes Hold at Home (think_global_health)
• The Supreme Court's Birthright Citizenship Ruling Was One Vote Away From Legal Chaos (scotusblog)
• Your social media algorithm thinks outrage means interest — and fills your feed accordingly (stanford_hai)
• Iran Just Hacked Water Systems in 12 States, and It Was Alarmingly Easy (csis)
• Trump Is Building a White House Ballroom Without Congressional Approval, and the Supreme Court May Be the Last Stop (scotusblog)
• When your hospital also owns your insurance plan, the benefits are real — but so is the potential for gaming taxpayers (the_conversation)
• Flooding in Appalachia Sends Overdose Deaths Surging — and the Damage Lasts for a Decade (the_conversation)