Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

Digital Tracking Beats Physical Inspections for Catching Smuggled AI Chips, Study Finds

cset

• The U.S. government is weighing how to enforce export controls on AI chips sold abroad, and a key question is whether to rely on physical audits or automated location-tracking technology.
• CSET researchers modeled over 10 million scenarios and found that ping-based location verification (PLV) — which measures signal travel time to verify where chips are — detects more smuggled chips per dollar than physical inspections in virtually every scenario.
• The authors recommend a hybrid approach: PLV as the primary system, supplemented by targeted physical inspections, since the two methods deter different smuggling strategies.

When Trump and Xi Refused to Regulate AI, They Handed the Job to Whoever Reviews Your Company's Work — and That Person Isn't Ready

lse_business_review

• With the US and China declining to set AI rules, and Europe and Britain also punting, the practical responsibility for catching AI errors has fallen to individual employees inside firms — people with little training and a well-documented tendency to trust whatever the machine produces.
• Behavioral science calls this "automation bias": the more reliable AI seems, the less people scrutinize its output, which is how Deloitte ended up billing governments for reports full of fabricated citations.
• The author argues this isn't a story about deregulation but about misplaced regulation — and that firms and governments treating human oversight as infrastructure to be built and funded, rather than assumed, would actually outperform those that don't.

Geopolitical risk is reshaping global finance, one bank loan at a time

voxeu

• Geopolitical tensions are increasingly influencing how and where banks extend credit across borders, with lenders pulling back from riskier geopolitical relationships.
• The research finds that banks are not just responding to economic fundamentals but are actively repricing and redirecting loans based on geopolitical alignment between countries.
• This fragmentation of global credit markets could accelerate the broader decoupling of the world economy into rival blocs, raising borrowing costs for countries caught on the wrong side of geopolitical divides.

In the News

Nebraska's Early Medicaid Work Requirements Are Already Cutting Off Some Enrollees — Here's What the Data Show

kff

• Nebraska became the first state to enforce new federal Medicaid work requirements in May 2026, and early data show 14% of new applicants and 7% of renewing enrollees lost coverage because they couldn't meet the requirements.
• Most people subject to the rules either qualified through work or got an exemption, but it's unclear whether those losing coverage were truly ineligible or simply struggled with the paperwork.
• The stakes will rise in 2028 when self-attestation is largely replaced by documentation requirements, which are expected to push disenrollment rates higher.

Analysis

Why People Treat AI Chatbots Like Oracles — and Why the Comparison Is More Than Metaphor

the_conversation

• People increasingly turn to AI for moral and personal guidance, and a new analysis argues this mirrors ancient oracle traditions: both involve consulting inscrutable, seemingly authoritative sources when human judgment falls short.
• The opacity of AI systems — even experts can't fully explain how they produce specific answers — parallels the enigmatic "black box" quality that historically gave oracles their authority and perceived transcendence.
• The authors aren't claiming AI is divine, but that the human impulse to seek answers from beyond ourselves is constant; AI is simply the latest vessel for that enduring need.

Also Worth a Look

• Saudi Arabia Is Building Its Own Security Umbrella, With Turkey and Pakistan, to Hedge Against U.S. Dependence (the_conversation)
• The Oil Shortage Nobody Could Have Prevented — But Everyone Should Have Seen Coming (the_conversation)
• The Supreme Court Isn't Just Siding With Trump — It's Grabbing Power for Itself (scotusblog)
• Immigrant Children in England Don't Just Catch Up in School — They Pull Ahead, and It Started Long Before Recent Reforms (lse)
• Global financial transparency rules are actually working — wealthy people are hiding far less money offshore (promarket)
• The Trump-Xi Summit Was Long on Pageantry and Short on Results (csis)
• Media Trust Is Still Near Rock Bottom, But Republicans Are Warming Up Slightly (gallup)