Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

The U.S. Is Stuck in a War with Iran That Voters Hate and Washington Can't Figure Out How to End

the_conversation

• Eight months into a U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, the conflict has degraded Iran's military and killed its supreme leader but failed to force regime change or produce a clear endgame — costing $38 billion and 19 American lives so far.
• The Republican midterm rout, which JD Vance publicly blamed on voter opposition to the war, has created political pressure to wind down hostilities, but hawks argue pulling back now would waste the costs already incurred.
• With a diplomatic memorandum expired, Israel's government in flux, Iran vowing to widen the conflict if attacked again, and a Democratic Congress incoming, the U.S. finds itself in a costly stalemate with no obvious exit.

The U.S. Can't Measure AI's Effect on Jobs — Here's How to Fix That

itif

• The federal government lacks the data to understand how AI is affecting employment, wages, and productivity — existing surveys tell us whether businesses use AI, but not which workers are affected, which tasks change, or what happens to hiring and pay.
• Two recent private-sector studies illustrate the gap: one found a 19% employment shortfall among young workers in AI-exposed occupations, while another found that firms investing in AI actually grew their workforces — findings that aren't necessarily contradictory but can't be reconciled without better data.
• ITIF recommends three fixes: make Census Bureau AI surveys recurring and link them to employment records, add AI questions to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' job openings survey, and expand time-use surveys to capture how AI changes what workers actually do day to day.

The Supreme Court Seems Ready to Gut the Precedent That Let Governments Override Religious Liberty

scotusblog

• A Supreme Court case about whether Colorado can exclude Catholic preschools from a universal pre-K funding program is really a referendum on a 1990 precedent called Employment Division v. Smith, which made it easy for governments to burden religious practice through neutral, generally applicable laws.
• The justices appear likely to rule for the Catholic parishes, and the more important question is whether they do so narrowly — based on technicalities of Colorado's exemption rules — or broadly, by holding that any government condition on public benefits that burdens religious exercise triggers strict scrutiny.
• A broad ruling would effectively quarantine Smith to a shrinking corner of free exercise law, make it much harder for states to exclude religious institutions from public programs, and move doctrine closer to the pre-1990 regime that required compelling justification for any substantial burden on religious practice.

In the News

Black voters helped elect Michigan's progressive Senate candidate — but they were actually less enthusiastic about him than other Democrats on the ballot

the_conversation

• Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan's U.S. Senate seat with strong Black voter support (86% statewide, 91.8% in Detroit), but Black Michiganders backed Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer at 94% and governor-elect Jocelyn Benson at 90% — suggesting loyalty to the party more than embrace of El-Sayed's progressive platform.
• The data can't distinguish whether Black voters were drawn to El-Sayed's progressive agenda or simply voting against Republicans and Trump — a critical distinction for anyone reading this race as a mandate.
• Black voter turnout and small shifts in support remain decisive in close Michigan races, and the author warns that if Democrats take Black loyalty for granted, they'll face less pressure to actually address Black voters' priorities like affordability, healthcare, and racial discrimination.

Analysis

An AI bust could hand Big Tech a monopoly on the infrastructure that runs everything

brookings

• Independent data centers and cloud companies borrowed billions to build AI infrastructure, but falling model prices — driven by open-source and Chinese rivals — may mean they can't generate enough revenue to service that debt, threatening their survival.
• When these companies fail, their assets (servers, power contracts, fiber connections) won't disappear — they'll be bought up by the hyperscalers and Big AI firms that already dominate the market, echoing how J.P. Morgan consolidated railroads after the 19th-century railroad bust.
• The author argues antitrust regulators need to get ahead of this now, because whoever controls AI compute infrastructure will ultimately control who gets to compete in the AI economy.

Also Worth a Look

• The U.S. Slashed Foreign Aid but Kept Funding the Wrong Parts of It the Wrong Way (brookings)
• GLP-1 Drugs Are Transforming Health in Rich Countries — But Most of the World Can't Access Them (science)
• Democratic neighborhoods are blocking data centers, which may push AI infrastructure toward Republican-leaning communities with dirtier power grids (hoover)
• Growing Up Under Populist Leaders Leaves Young People With a More Zero-Sum View of the World (voxeu)
• Extreme rainfall is hitting the U.S. so hard that three 'once-in-a-millennium' flood events happened in a single weekend (yale_climate)
• AI Is Quietly Reshaping Who Controls Corporate Voting — and Companies Aren't Ready (harvard_corpgov)
• The Trump Administration Is Systematically Dismantling the Visa Pathways That Bring Foreign Scientists to America (macroscience)