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Prediction Edge
Market mispricings, bettor discipline, and where the edge actually lives
This week’s Prediction Edge pulls together the stories, opportunities, and practical moves worth your attention. MLB announced a partnership with Polymarket on Thursday that includes integrity monitoring, data sharing and the right...
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Prediction Edge: MLB’s Polymarket...
Sun, 22 Mar 2026 07:10:06 GMT
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Lead story · Sportico
Sportico: MLB announced a partnership with Polymarket on Thursday that includes integrity monitoring, data sharing and the right to use intellectual property. But the bulk of the...
Market Structure
Liquidity, regulation and platform shifts that change how trades should be sized.
Sportico
Sportico: MLB announced a partnership with Polymarket on Thursday that includes integrity monitoring, data sharing and the right to use intellectual property. But the bulk of the...
CoinDesk
CoinDesk: When social media declared Netanyahu dead, crypto prediction markets priced it at 5%. The money was right — and Washington wants to shut it down.
Cointelegraph General
Cointelegraph General: The disruption to the oil market and critical energy effects may have long-term economic effects that investors are not pricing in.
Sports Narrative Traps
Events that are likely to pull recreational money away from the true price.
Sportico
Sportico: Today’s guest columnists are professors John Cairney and Rick Burton. Sport leagues have long believed they controlled all relevant branding. In fact, the NBA’s...
CoinDesk
CoinDesk: A Nevada court issued a 14-day ban on a wide range of contracts from prediction market firm Kalshi as the firm continues battling with state regulators.
ESPN News
ESPN News: Odds for each team to advance through the bracket and to win the 2026 women's college basketball championship.
Jarvis Signal Desk
Bot process, bankroll discipline and what a premium layer should focus on.
Jarvis Bot
Jarvis Bot: The standing configuration uses a $1,000 bankroll, 25% Kelly fraction and 15% minimum edge. Premium readers care about disciplined exposure, not hero trades.
Jarvis Bot
Jarvis Bot: Research, scan and postmortem legs are alive. The broken piece is prediction scoring until API credentials are refreshed.
Bankroll Rule
Every issue should remind readers that edge without sizing discipline is just an expensive opinion. The premium offer only works if the public free tier sees process, restraint, and honest postmortems.
Monetisation Map
Projected CPM: GBP18-35 plus GBP9/month premium tier upside. The sponsor and affiliate stack is selected for buyer intent, not decoration.
Sponsors to court
- Prediction platforms — Referral deals for high-intent market participants.
- Crypto exchanges — Deposit bonuses and trader education placements.
- Odds-screening tools — Value-betting software and sharp book comparisons.
- Data providers — Sports stats, news alerts and price-monitoring tools.
Affiliate layers
- Crypto exchange partners: Natural match for trader onboarding and bankroll funding.
- Sportsbook referral offers: Best used alongside market analysis and line-shopping explainers.
- Premium tier: GBP9/month for signal notes, staking discipline and postmortems.
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Reply with the market you want modelled, the bad line you are seeing, or the exchange that wants in front of this audience.
Automation stack: RSS ingestion, AI editorial layer, local QA, Beehiiv draft delivery. If Beehiiv publication mapping is not set, local draft generation still completes.
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