Quarter year reflections: the die is cast
Hello everyone,
This will be a somewhat complex newsletter as I’m feeling a bit down about the how the business is going at the moment. Apologies in advance and, to be clear, I’m writing this more to share than to express a desire for aid or anything, please don’t feel any obligation to reach out or that I’m crying for help, I’m just trying to share openly, and sometimes the downs are a real part of the process..
At the start of the year, I shared that I had four goals:
Earn enough money to keep going
Sell 1000 books
Sell $25,000 of workshops
Contribute to my retirement savings (as a 35-36 year old that’s just like good sense)
So far, we’ve sold 117 books and sold $11,000 of workshops but, to be honest, I am very unsure if I’ll be able to keep going full time.
In publishing, the main issue is that I pay for book to be printed upfront and then, as books sell, earn the money back. So there’s this sort of crystal ball forecasting I have to do where I try to estimate how many books will sell at different points of the year to work out how much cash flow I’ll have. Similarly, if I sign up to a book fair, I have to pay the attendance fee, book any travel and accommodation and ship stock ahead, all before making my first sale.
Looking at things currently, I have a lot of money that’s gone out. I’ve been paying for re-branding (which is looking so good), printing an expensive book, paid for three book fairs, three international flights, accommodation in Japan and the US, as well as other regular expenses (studio rent, etc).
But, being honest, so far the sales haven’t really been there to cushion these expenses. Partly that’s expected: I put money into the travel to make sales I wouldn’t otherwise. But with so much cash out, it’s really hard to see how everything will work. Frankly, I’m quite worried I’ve overspent and under-earned, and I’m not sure quite what will happen.
At most turns I’ve over-estimated the sales I’d make, so this year I adjusted downwards and, still, I’ve been over-estimating even from a conservative place.
Our most recent event, for example, I’d been working towards selling 20 books on the night (but hoping for way more) and we sold 15. On one hand 15 is close to 20, but on another that’s 75% of what I’d planned for, a quarter of the way off.
Additionally, the new book isn’t shifting online as well as we’d hoped, and several stores we stock at just don’t seem interested, which can always happens. Partially this is just because I probably had my heart set on quicker sales (we’ve sold about 40 copies online so far which is pretty good) and partially I think some of the background work with the artist was her focus rather than promoting, which robbed us of some momentum. To be fair, though, it’s hard to know how much that would translate into sales.
Workshops, too, I thought that while not every one would sell out if I sold 50% of the seats at each that’d be good. While some DID sell out (and they tended to be the more expensive ones), others sold 0 tickets, or just 1 ticket. That’s ok, on average we’re probably not too far off, but it’s also a little blow to the ego.
So I’m in a place where I’m probably about $4-5000 behind where I’d like to be. In June I’ll have to pay $12,000 for our second book to be printed. In July about $10,000 for our third book. But currently that seems really, really, really like a miracle if it were to happen.
Here’s the three things that could change that:
We could have three really great book fairs in May. We’ll be in Melbourne, LA and Tokyo - if we sell very well at each we’ll be in a good spot.
If our second book does amazingly in terms of the launch and online sales we’ll be looking forward really well. This is not impossible as we have a lot of support, a funded artist film and a few other marketing/institutional support that we don’t usually have.
A combination of workshop and book sales could come through in April, including 2-3 stores ordering and that additional unexpected income would be crucial.
But here’s the thing - as you can see all of those things are out of my hands. I can’t work any more (it’s school holidays soon), I’ve saturated my online marketing to drive engagement and I can’t work full time (as I have travel commitments). In some ways I’ve sort of backed myself into a corner, and today at least, I’m kind of annoyed at myself over that, and a bit sad.
Previously, I’d thought ‘if I need extra money I’ll do more substitute teaching’, but, in the short term, I’ve sort of maxed that out too. I’m working as much as I can this week, as much as I can in Term 2, but there are times I’m traveling and can’t work. I have agreed to be in Perth in August, or Broken Hill in June for an exhibition. In July I’m traveling with my girlfriend and launching our second book in France. It’s hard to imagine canceling those things as, we have large institutional support, a bit of funding from the government and I’d be letting a lot of folks down, but perhaps I don’t need to be there.
For better or worse, I’ve made these things key commitments and career building events, but that prevents me from working a day job, and that sort of is an issue right now.
If I was to be honest - I think that the most likely situation is that I tread water financially until July and then return to full time work. Previously I’d written that I’m ok with that, but today I feel a bit differently, a bit more like I failed, like I backed the wrong horse at the wrong time. Part of me is imagining what it’d be like to have to publicly wind some things down, but still turn up to art events and just, I don’t know, be aware that everyone knows I didn’t get there. It’s better to try but sometimes you do regret it don’t you?
Sorry to be a debbie downer, I’ve been generally fairly proud of the progress I’ve been making and I’ve enjoyed sharing that with you all. Probably the under-current of each newsletter is ‘yeah it’s great doing what I like, but is it paying off?’ - sometimes it’s felt like it has been but I’m sort of just at a hard fork in the road.
April + May is make-or-break, I think there’s a 70% chance I’ve just moved too fast, too soon, and can’t adapt to things.
Till next week,
Matt