s5e8: BEAUTIFUL RACE IN ITALY WITH MY FRIENDS
Hello everyone and welcome to Grand Tour Season. The Giro d’Italia is upon us (yes we are sending this late!!! sue us!!!) and we know: you are not ready. So if you, like some of our esteemed friends and colleagues, have decided to watch cycling this year, we’re about to make it real easy.
Here are the correct sports opinions going into the Giro.
Are we biased? Maybe. But that’s what sports is about. And no, we’re not covering every team and every rider and yes this is mostly about the drama of it all. Thanks. We’re not being paid.
Brief Terminology Guide:
A stage = one day of the race. Each stage has a different course. There are 21 stages in the race.
Mountain stage = they go up a really steep hill (or several)… pure vert
Classics-style stage = rolling terrain
Sprint stage = ‘tis flat
Time Trial = one guy at a time, fastest wins
GC = best overall time when you add up every stage and winner of the race. “The pink jersey” is a euphemism for the GC leader, as they wear, uh, a pink jersey
Sprint jersey = best sprinter
King of the Mountains (KOM) = picks up the most points in the mountains
Young riders jersey = best overall time of riders under 25 years old (this rider is also eligible for GC)
PS cycling is a team sport so they pick teams to play, not just one guy to win. Make sense?
Finally, cycling is, indeed, a sport –– like most these days –– which is riddled with sport-washing. The only difference is many teams are named after the sponsors themselves, rather than having sponsorship hidden behind a majority share or plastered on the side of the arena and not the jersey. (Yes, this does mean team names change constantly. We can talk about that another time.)
We root for riders because they’re athletes to watch, we don’t follow teams for sponsors. Please don’t mistake our enthusiasm for the sport and these riders as endorsement of the sponsors. I think any sports people will know this. But I think you are not all sports people. Yet.
The elephant in the room
UAE
This team would be a disgusting behemoth if they weren’t so goddamned fun –– and if their biggest rival Visma didn’t get one up on them in each of the grand tours last year. With talent to spare, they’re a team that has been surprisingly good about giving a veritable stable of thoroughbreds ample opportunities to make their mark, especially when Pogačar isn’t in the race. With the decision to aim for GC with Pogi in both the Giro and the Tour, this Giro team, while very strong, isn’t the strongest support possible given those who are slated for the Tour. But Pogačar is still the far and away favorite to win and their Giro squad is still packed top to bottom with talent. After a cracking spring campaign, we expect to see white jerseys at the front of the race for pretty much every day over the next three weeks, if all goes according to plan. To beat them, someone is going to need to get lucky, get crafty and take a very big swing. Even then, there isn’t a man who loves a big swing more than Pog, so they’ll have to be careful or they’ll end up taking him with them anyway.
Tadej Pogačar: We love Pog because he isn’t afraid to lay it all on the line. Though he’s getting more tactical with experience, which has been a joy to watch, he has retained (or possibly bettered) his nitrous kick on the vert and his desire to plain old race from any position at any stage. Look for Pogi to have fun, to be an expressive rider and to top the podium for several mountain stages and likely the Giro overall. But if things are going well, and he has a strong lead, look for the team to beg him to step off the gas so he has something in the tank for the Tour a mere five weeks after the close of this race.
Domen Novak: When UAE needs to control the peloton and/or set a blistering pace at a key stage of the race, Novak is the guy you will see trucking it. He looked sharp this spring and his health and readiness will be a big factor for UAE being able to burn matches in the order they want.
Rafał Majka: While Tadej is the boss, Majka is often the one calling the shots on the road. He’s a strong rider in his own right and has no fear of the mountains as a former Tour de France KOM winner. He brings a measured edge to UAE and has balanced the full-gas mentality of Tadej in previous grand tours. Expect to see him go deep in stages and show his nerves of steel.
Operatic levels of drama
dsm-firmanech PostNL
This is a dramatic team for one reason: it’s confusing. Romain Bardet is here as GC leader on the heels of a successful spring campaign, but the team has also devoted roster space to sprinter Fabio Jakobsen and a lead out man to try and get him over the line. Bardet is on record saying he plans to approach this race as if every day were a Classic rather than focus singularly on GC, so it would appear that all is well in PostNL-land, but it just seems to us like a weird way to approach the race from the team’s perspective. They’re heavily banking on Jakobsen to win a few stages to justify their split focus and we aren’t convinced he can pull it off, especially as there’s a good chance he’ll abandon the race once the peloton heads into the mountains. But then again, we aren’t being paid to run a cycling team so maybe this strategy is a stroke of genius.
Romain Bardet: Romain Bardet has been something of a perennial second throughout the latter stages of his career but our man is heading into the Giro with very good legs. He held off a swarming chase group to take second place in LBL in truly inspirational fashion and if he holds his form, he will be a serious podium contender. Look for him to come alive in the high mountains, where, in the unlikely event that he falls out of contention for GC early on, he could also make a push for the KOM jersey.
Kevin Vermaerke: Despite his Dutch-seeming last name, it may please the readers of KFZ, who we assume are mostly Americans, to see an American cyclist on this list. (Don’t worry, he’s not the only good American racing this season, or even the best of his countrymen.) Vermaerke looked strong in his opening races this year and could be a surprisingly capable teammate for Bardet on a divided dsm team. After coming 11th in last year’s Tour de France young rider classification, he could even make another bid for the white jersey.
Ineos
Ineos is a team with talent to burn, but this particular lineup leaves us a bit befuddled. Veteran rider and former Tour winner Geraint Thomas is their clear GC favorite and could podium this race, in which he came a heartbreaking second last year after leading for many days. While this isn’t a bad team, their plans for launching G to victory (or another second) aren’t immediately clear from the roster, given this seems to be Ineos’s best shot at a grand tour podium this year. Even if Thomas’s teammates have been having good showings this spring, he will be surrounded by younger riders. Not surprising from a team turning over a leaf, but Ineos’s typical game plan is to control the race in a way we are not sure the young bucks have the gravitas to pull off just yet. Will they change tactics? Or perhaps Ganna will be forced to take the lead as a rouleur –– if he’s not stage hunting outside the time trials.
Geraint Thomas: With a fresh Giro haircut, the peloton’s favorite Welshman* is back at it and looking for revenge. G has been a high-level rider for years and years and, after narrowly missing out on the pink jersey in 2023, has nothing much to lose. While G has looked in typically middling form this spring, he has always been a rider who focuses on a big peak rather than maintaining superior form in tune-up races. We always look forward to Geraint’s tactics, and at this point he is not a rider who is likely to lose because of a tactical error of his own design, which makes his racing a thrill to watch –– you’ll know him by his blinding white shades. We enjoy his down to earth mentality as much as his racing.
Thymen Arensman: After a decent spring campaign, look to Arensman for white jersey contention (runner up last year) and to be a potential threat that Ineos can use strategically in order to take on less responsibility as a team. Put it this way, if he and Geraint both look like GC contenders, Ineos’s hand of cards just got easier to play. On the off chance that G doesn’t look in peak condition, Arensman might also get some weight thrown behind him if he has legs.
*Luke Rowe notwithstanding.
Bora-Hansgrohe
Bora’s alleged planned GC co-leader for the Giro was Emanuel Buchmann. Despite middling results from the last few years, he looked in decent shape this spring and, of Bora’s squad, made a case for himself. As far as we know, Bora cut him from the race via social media, which he responded to also on social media. It wasn’t pretty. Looking at their roster we can’t say that we are exactly making heads or tails of it, with some guys in close contention for potential GC status and a sprinter in the mix. But to be honest, everyone knows they are on the Primož Roglič train to the Tour probably at all costs, and this race was second priority for them.
Florian Lipowitz: This may be recency bias speaking, but Lipowitz seems to have fucking crushed it at the Tour of Romandie and, had the team given him the go-ahead, would have easily won a stage by grinding Richard Carapaz into dust on the side of a mountain. Now tell me you don’t want to see that guy ride! We hope to see him head-to-head in the young riders classification, although he is in his first grand tour and his stamina for three-week races is an unknown.
Soudal QuickStep
Soudal has been in the press this year for all the wrong reasons. With a markedly outspoken general manager who has a history of talking about riders negatively in public, QuickStep’s spring has been overshadowed by tensions between former world champion Julian Alaphilippe and management –– including rumors the Frenchman will take a contract elsewhere next season. The comments have gotten so bad that GM Lefevre was ordered to apologize after making digs about Alaphilippe’s wife… and this is before any of the real racing drama began. After a very limp classics campaign, the team was hoping to rebound on the back of phenom Remco Evenepoel at the Tour, but his shape remains to be seen after a very dangerous crash this spring. Their Giro team feels as up in the air as the rest of their season.
Julian Alaphilippe: While Alaphilippe is a beloved rider and former world champion, he hasn’t looked in great shape for the last few years following a series of crashes, and perhaps age and, if you are asking Lefevre, other unconfirmed “personality” reasons. Alaphilippe will attack and can be a very punchy rider, but his classics season looked dead in the water, and he eventually announced he had been riding with a broken knee. It’s not clear what kind of shape he will be in, but if he is feeling good he should get decent screen time in at least a few stages. Keep an eye out for the rainbow bands on his shirtsleeves and the signature goatee.
Tim Merlier: Merlier started the 2024 season hot hot hot, looking like he could go toe to toe with last year’s Tour de France sprint champion Jasper Phillipsen. He cooled off towards the end of QuickStep’s admittedly middling classics season, but he gets over the mountains well and will be looking to contest any given sprint stage. Merlier is probably QuickStep’s best shout for a stage win this Giro but whether he can regain his early-season form against a decently strong field of sprinters remains to be seen.
Visma | Lease A Bike
Visma-LAB has been an unfortunate and unlucky team this spring, with drama coming at absolutely no fault of their own as two of their best riders both suffered catastrophic crashes already this season. While Jonas Vingegaard was never planning on going to the Giro, his readiness for the Tour is now under heavy speculation. Meanwhile, Wout van Aert, who was seemingly in the form of his life and targeting the Giro this year, has had to drop months worth of races from his calendar due to injury. As one member of the Visma coaching staff said, you simply can’t replace a rider like him –– and Visma hasn’t. Without that center of gravity, their Giro team seems a bit scrambled, as do their aims for the rest of the season. But while we hope all the Visma riders recover fully and are able to continue their lives and careers in perfect health, we are also not worried for the team: they are well-funded and stacked with excellent riders, and not in danger of a total organizational collapse. With depth and talent like theirs they will certainly be looking to pick up points and possibly even have a rider or two take the cycling world by surprise with a big result.
Christophe Laporte: With Wout sidelined due to injury, Laporte takes his place at this year’s Giro. He had a quiet spring after struggling with his own health and his form is a bit of a question mark. Laporte could easily contest a classics stage if he is feeling well, lead out Kooij or even sprint himself if the situation demanded, but given Visma’s murky goals and seemingly GC-less team, we would think his objective would be a stage win.
Cian Uijtdebroeks: Cian is a rider with drama all to himself, allegedly leaving Bora at the end of last season despite still being under contract due to bullying –– and yes, there was legal moderation involved. We don’t have any real insight as to what actually happened at Bora, and we also don’t have any real insight as to what Visma’s hopes are for Uijtdebroeks during this tour. He has been a consistently strong rider for the past couple of years and, at only 21, could very well be on the hunt for the white jersey. Will Visma give him riders to buoy him towards GC contention, will he be supporting, or possibly stage hunting? Your guess is as good as ours.
Olav Kooij: One of the sprinters to watch in this field, given Visma’s discombobulated squad he stands out as a rider with a clear objective. Look for the yellow riders in prime position heading into the last 5 ks of any sprint stage and he should be tucked away at the end of the line. We have no reason to believe he can’t make a strong case for the sprint jersey.
Bahrain-Victorious
Wout Poels is a man who is not afraid to speak his mind. The Belgian was not happy to be left off of the Giro team, even if it seems like Bahrain has bigger plans for him. How did we find this all out? Through the press, of course. He’s right to be upset because a number of these stages look tailor-made for him. We will miss his personality, although Bahrain is a team that is full of characters and you should expect to see something from them regardless. They tend to send guys who aren’t afraid to strike out on the road to tours and this Giro seems no different.
Antonio Tiberi: A youth classification contender, Tiberi has had a strong showing from his week-long races this season. While we don’t think he will punt it all the way to a GC threat, it would be so juicy if he upset his own team leader. Probably not but…
Do you want to sound like you know what’s going on?
Décathlon-AG2R La Mondiale
While we mourn the loss of their brown shorts and sick bikes from last season, a mint-green shoulder has barged them through the opening to 2024 in surprisingly good fashion. They are targeting the Giro for GC and have a decent chance to podium. Said one editor, “I feel like they could be fun.”
Ben O’Connor: Serious podium contender O’Connor should be in shape and seems motivated to take it to the Giro this year. His climbing is strong and if he’s on form we feel he will be right up there in the fight. His accent in French is terrible, but maybe you find that endearing.
Aurélien and Valentin Paret-Peintre: Sorry to lump the brothers together, but they just both looked so good alongside one another in the races leading into the Giro. They both rode with some real pizazz and aren’t afraid to make moves. We would expect to see them support O’Connor and maybe even get into a break as satellite riders.
Jayco-AlUla
Jayco is not sending their usual GC leader but they do have a team with some gumption and could sneak in for a breakaway attempt and stage wins. They will be aiming for the sprint jersey and have a surprise candidate for young rider as well.
Caleb Ewan: Most of what we want to say about Caleb Ewan is that he’s had a lot of personal drama with his teammates and was picked up by Jayco after leaving on unfriendly terms from his previous job. Through the grapevine, it seems that he’s a divisive figure. He can definitely sprint, but isn’t as versatile as some other fast men, and will probably suffer greatly in the mountains, possibly even abandoning the race.
Luke Plapp: If you were looking for the Australian road champion, you found him. Plapp should have a good shot at the young riders jersey, although he may struggle with the demands of a three-week race as this is only his second grand tour. That said, he really showed some flash this spring so maybe he is coming into form.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl Trek is another team that will probably target the Tour and the Vuelta more than the Giro, however they are a very fun team overall with extremely good kits that are easy to spot. So if you are feeling overwhelmed, look for primary colors, color blocking, and their unmistakable panache. Their Giro leader had surgery this spring and is out of the race, so they’ve had to make changes to their plans for this lineup.
Jonathan Milan: Watch for this guy on sprint stages, he probably won’t be around for anything hillier if his classics form this year is any indication. He is the defending sprint jersey winner.
Jasper Stuyven: Stuyven looked very good this spring, in seemingly incredible shape. A crash derailed his classics campaign but we hope he is feeling good for the Giro. A veteran rider, he could play a key role organizing the team and, if his legs are there, should get the nod to make moves himself.
Groupama FDJ
First, we must express our disappointment that David Gaudu isn’t there. Or is he? Maybe we will appear magically at the end in 7th place, somehow. They are probably putting more eggs in the Tour basket, so to us this team feels like a question mark.
Laurence Pithie: Pithie was a breakout rider in the classics season this year, and this will be his first Giro. Given his inexperience, it is possible that he blows up in the third week, however he has looked in good form and could be given leeway to ride. High risk / high reward.
Tudor Pro Cycling Team
Tudor has looked hot this spring as a team gunning for a proverbial promotion. You will spot them easily with their all-black kits, the only of their kind in the peleton. They need UCI points to move up and we hope to see them with a punchy strategy as they have nothing obvious to play for on GC.
Matteo Trentin: Trentin had a great spring campaign and could be a threat on classics stages. As an Italian, he may get a boost from home-crowd advantage.
Michael Storer: This Australian is an outside shout for the KOM competition, as he’s been climbing consistently well in his stage races this year. As with all of Tudor, we would be excited to see him strike out and make a play for a breakaway.
Astana Qazaqstan
As a team, not incredibly strong. This year Astana’s goal will be the same as last, to see Cavendish break the Tour de France record for sprint stages, so they aren’t fielding their a-team for the Giro.
Alexey Lutsenko: Lutsenko is a brave rider who has the legs to back himself on a break. He doesn’t get that much support from other Astana riders in his big moves but if you love a breakaway, we would bet he’ll be in one this Giro, perhaps even on a mountain stage.
Movistar
First question: where is Enric Mas? Second question: Tour de France whomst?
Nairo Quintana: This will be the first grand tour back for Colombian Quintana after he was in team flux following a results reversal due to tramadol use. He was a little invisible in the tune-up races this year but can definitely climb and will be looking for a mountain stage win, if not more.
Alpecin-Deceuninck
The Alpecin team had a white-hot classics season. Their illustrious leader and current world champion MVDP is not showing up to the Giro and we would bet their team will be invisible in most mountain stages, but will execute well in the sprints. They could put a guy out front in a break or two on the classics-style stages if someone’s legs are feeling good, which it seems they have been.
Kaden Groves: If all goes according to plan, this man could win a lot of sprints. He may not have that patented Australian charisma, but he did a smokin’ job in the Vuelta ‘23 so if you want to put chips on a sprint jersey winner, he’s a solid pick.
If you want X, root for rider Y*:
If you want a wily veteran who will give you a tactical masterclass and has a strong personality, root for: Geraint Thomas.
If you want pure joie de vivre and high octane racing with sportsmanship to boot root for: Tadej Pogačar.
If you want incredible determination with an evident love for racing and someone who isn’t afraid to race hard even if he won’t win root for: Romain Bardet.
If you want a phenom upstart who has an outside chance at an upset and a name you’ll never hear pronounced right on English commentary root for: Cian Uijtdebroeks.
If you like a quick upward trajectory and seeing an underdog rise but don’t need a podium spot to get your blood pumping root for: Tudor Pro Cycling as a whole.
If you like a breakaway and love to see a rider on a long leash root for: Alexey Lutsenko.
If you want a team of breakaway riders that you will always be able to spot root for: Lidl-Trek
*We are not responsible if you root for the wrong rider and we do not endorse all of these people. Or technically any. We don’t know them and again, aren’t being paid. But if any cycling teams are reading this we are amenable to bribes and can push your rider to a niche readership this year for a low low price of say 50,000 EUR. Contact us.
Best way to get into it if you’re in the US: highlights on Max.
Thank you everyone and we’re sorry for all of the spelling and grammar errors, especially on names. We barely did a read through because… We’re watching the race right now –– Laporte is currently playing water boy and has about six bottles stuffed down the front of his jersey. UAE is already on the front, with Ineos right behind. Don’t expect to hear from us before the end of the race and honestly, don’t contact us. We’re elbows deep in racing and will ignore you. It’s good to be back.
Written by: Lauren Christiansen, Hannah Christiansen
Directed by: Lauren Christiansen