Blame the fact that it’s been too hot all week for this post.

When I was a kid, the U.K. had a special kids’ meteorologist. His forecasts weren’t any more accurate than the regular meteorologist. Growing up on a small island with highly unpredictable weather, my faith in weather forecasts was, shall we say, minimal.

“We watch it to see what it’s not going to do.”

On the east coast of the U.S., I found the forecasts more accurate, although never perfect. Forecasting the weather no doubt started by “looking in the direction of the prevailing wind,” but it’s been an important human activity for a long time. Weather forecasts don’t just tell us whether it’s a good day for a hike. They help farmers judge the best time to plant and fishermen know when it’s safe to go out to sea. Airplanes try to forecast the weather in a very local area in order to try and predict, and thus avoid, dangerous turbulence.