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September 13, 2020

Tour de France Stage 15 recap: Ineos' day of reckoning

As Tadej Pogacar and Primoz Roglic battled out a summit finish for the third time this Tour, Egan Bernal and Team Ineos were nowhere to be seen.

The defending Tour champion, riding for cycling's evil empire of the last decade, cracked within the first seven kilometers of the 17-kilometer Grand Colombier as Wout van Aert -- riding for Jumbo-Visma, cycling's new overlords -- winnowed the peloton at a ferocious rate. As the few Ineos riders left fell back to help their team leader, Jumbo-Visma was six riders strong at the front, neutralizing all challenges.

As has been the case through two weeks, only the 21-year-old Pogacar was able to follow Roglic's finishing kick. He towed the yellow jersey to the line just as Roglic towed him two days ago on the Puy Mary, emphasizing once again that the two Slovenians are riding a different race from everyone else.

Ineos, meanwhile, are left fighting for consolation prizes. It's not that they haven't had bad Tours before -- Bradley Wiggins crashed out as a favorite in 2011, and Chris Froome's repeat campaign ended with an abandonment in 2014. But never have they been beaten head-to-head like this, with a team leader shaking his head on a marquee climb, his legs screaming and teammates largely absent.

They're in this position because of a combination of bad form, bad luck and hubris. It's no one's fault that Pavel Sivakov, who should have been one of Bernal's biggest helpers in the mountains, crashed early in the Tour and has been too hurt to help (he's currently 107th on the general classification). And there's no question that the Covid-19 pandemic hurt a team so centered on meticulous training plans that put riders in peak form for July, when the Tour normally takes place.

But Ineos is also getting burned for the desperate decisions they made just before the Tour started. After they struggled at the Critérium du Dauphiné, Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas (a combined five yellow jerseys between them) were left off the Tour squad. Instead, Ineos decided to lean on Tour rookies like Richard Carapaz, who had to scrap his plans to be the team leader at the Giro d'Italia in October.

Riding in fancy new kits for their sponsor's fancy new SUV (they've been the Ineos Grenadiers this whole time, I just don't want to update my lexicon), Ineos thought they could just as easily change the team's DNA. True, Froome and Thomas might have also disappeared on the Grand Colombier -- they did look off at the Dauphiné -- but Ineos' Tour wouldn't have been worse than this, and there's a chance that one of them (Thomas, most likely) could have rode his way into form through the first two weeks.

Ineos could return to imperial-grade strength next year if the training calendar normalizes; Bernal is still a prodigious talent. But with Froome off to Israel Start-Up Nation and Thomas soon to be 35 years old, they will no longer have the full use of their most experienced and proven talent.

The key members of Ineos' future were on full display Sunday. For the first time ever, the team has a reason to worry.

Rog vs. Pog, Pt. 3

The action on Grand Colombier wasn't much at the front, unlike Saturday's free-for-all Sunweb special. Off the back was a different story. Every time a new Jumbo-Visma rider took their turn setting the pace, more pre-Tour hopefuls were distanced. Bernal, who entered the day 59 seconds off the yellow jersey, finished 8:25 back. Nairo Quintana was fifth overall at 1:12 back; now he's ninth at 5:08. In a good example of how much damage Roglic and Pogacar did to their rivals, Guillaume Martin's gap to yellow more than doubled from 3:14 to 6:45, but he remained in 11th place.

Surprisingly, the riders who could follow Roglic and Pogacar were some of the Tour's oldest hands. Adam Yates was the only rider to attempt a Jumbo-breaking attack, going solo with 7k to go for more than a kilometer before he was reeled in; he'd finish just 15 seconds back of the stage winner to jump up to fifth overall. Rigoberto Uran, 33, was just 18 seconds off the stage winner, and moved up to third place overall in place of Bernal. And Richie Porte, 35, was the best non-Slovenian on the day, nearly holding on to Roglic's wheel to finish five seconds back on the stage and jump up to sixth overall.

But with 600 meters in the stage, the cream rose to the top. Roglic broke off the wheel of super-domestique Tom Dumoulin and only Pogacar could follow. The youngster then nosed ahead and held his bike-length advantage to the line, forcing a grimace on Roglic's face for the first time this Tour.

Pogacar took four seconds out of Roglic's lead with the time bonus, and heads into the third week just 40 seconds out of the yellow jersey. With just four GC-minded stages left, he has a lot of work to do if he's going to win the Tour. But as the only rider to put Roglic in any kind of pain, he has better than a puncher's chances. This is still a tight Tour:

Gap between Tour de France 1-2 overall before the final week (last ten years):
2011 – 1:49
2012 – 2:05
2013 – 4:14
2014 – 4:37
2015 – 3:10
2016 – 1:47
2017 – 0:18
2018 – 1:39
2019 – 1:35
2020 – 0:40

— CafeRoubaix (@CafeRoubaix) September 13, 2020

Is the polka dot battle finally interesting?

Nothing against Benoit Cosnefroy, who will wear the polka dot jersey for a 15th straight stage this Tuesday, but it was nice to see some real King of the Mountains contenders come forward Sunday.

An eight-man breakaway was quickly reduced to four on the Category 1 Montée de la Selle de Fromentel: Pierre Rolland, Michael Gogl, Jesus Herrada and Simon Geschke. With little action coming from the peloton, they provided most of the day's entertainment by duking it out for summits.

Rolland attacked first at the top of the Montée de la Selle de Fromentel, which ramped up to a sadistic 22 (!) percent gradient. Herrada swung around him to take top and the maximum points. Geschke took third, and Michael Gogl -- who weaved up the mountain in absolute misery, possibly stuck in the wrong gear -- took fourth.

On the descent, Gogl got his revenge, catching and then putting 50 seconds on his rivals. On the second Category 1, the Col de la Biche, he could only stay away until the last two kilometers of the climb, however. Rolland dropped Geschke and Herrada and caught Gogl by himself, then soloed for the summit. Gogl took second, Herrada took third and Geschke took fourth.

Rolland was the last breakaway rider to be caught with 15k to go, and earned Most Combative for the effort. More importantly, we have reason to dissect the King of the Mountains standings, finally.

Cosnefroy is in first overall with 36 points, just two points over Pogacar, who earned 20 for taking the stage, and three points ahead of Roglic, who earned 15 for second. There are six other riders who have at least 24 points. Presumably, Roglic and Pogacar will vie for max points again on the Tour's three remaining HC climbs simply by gunning for the yellow jersey, but there are plenty of smaller climbs in between where strong break riders like Rolland, Herrada and Gogl could hoover up points. There's also time for the well-situated Nans Peters and Marc Hirschi, tied for fourth at 31 points, to re-enter the competition.

Sunday reemphasized the fact that the polka dot jersey won't be Cosnefroy's for long; he finished with the gruppetto at nearly 40 minutes behind Pogacar. Today's breakaway riders seemed to be stating their intentions to take it off his back. If they don't, it will be a nice side pot prize in the Slovenian Derby.

This Tour is mean, Pt. 372

Sergio Higuita was forced to abandon after a hard crash. On an innocuous stretch of road, Deceuninck-Quick Step's Bob Jungels swung suddenly to his right and chopped down the 23-year-old Colombian champion, who took a HARD fall on his left side. Higuita rode on, despite the blow to the head he seemingly sustained (and the criticism of how Romain Bardet's head injury was handled before he abandoned Thursday). He reportedly crashed again not much farther down the road, and a decision was made to pull him out of the Tour.

Higuita buried his head in his hands, tears streaming. He has one of the brightest futures among cycling's generational wave of talent. He already has a Vuelta stage win, national championship and third place at Paris-Nice on his resume. His abandonment (what the hell, Bob?) is deeply unfair.

The calm before the FUN

An absurd display of bike-handling in Antwerp.

A full-moon butt I forgot to link to yesterday.

The Florian Schneider tribute on Grand Colombier is even more elaborate than I realized.

ACTUALLY museum-worthy field art?

The Tour hit gradients of 22 percent Sunday on what would be the steepest départementale in France if not for some dubious, hilariously self-interested measurements.

The standings

STAGE 15

  1. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) -- 4hr 24min 14sec
  2. Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) -- "
  3. Richie Porte (Trek-Segafredo) -- +5sec
  4. Miguel Angel Lopez (Astana) -- +8sec
  5. Enric Mas (Movistar) -- +15sec
  6. Sepp Kuss (Jumbo-Visma) -- "
  7. Mikel Landa (Bahrain-McLaren) -- "
  8. Adam Yates (Mitchelton-Scott) -- "
  9. Rigoberto Uran (Education First) -- +18sec
  10. Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) -- +24sec

GENERAL CLASSIFICATION

  1. Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) — 65hr 37min 07sec
  2. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) -- +40sec
  3. Rigoberto Uran (Education First) -- +1min 34sec
  4. Miguel Angel Lopez (Astana) – +1min 45sec
  5. Adam Yates (Mitchelton-Scott) — +2min 03sec
  6. Richie Porte (Trek-Segafredo) -- +2min 13sec
  7. Mikel Landa (Bahrain-McLaren) -- +2min 16sec
  8. Enric Mas (Movistar) -- +3min 15sec
  9. Nairo Quintana (Arkea-Samsic) — +5min 08sec
  10. Tom Dumoulin (Jumbo-Visma) -- +5min 12sec

GREEN JERSEY

  1. Sam Bennett (Deceuninck-Quick-Step) — 269 points
  2. Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) — 224
  3. Matteo Trentin (CCC) — 189
  4. Bryan Coquard (B&B Hotels-Vital Concept) -- 166
  5. Caleb Ewan (Lotto Soudal) -- 158

POLKA DOT JERSEY

  1. Benoit Cosnefroy (AG2R-La Mondiale) — 36 points
  2. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) -- 34
  3. Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) -- 33
  4. Nans Peters (AG2R-La Mondiale) -- 31
  5. Marc Hirschi (Sunweb) -- 31

Stage 16 preview -- 164km from La Tour-du-Pin to Villard-de-Lans (Tuesday)

Stage 16 will begin at 1:20 p.m. local, 7:20 a.m. ET on Tuesday. For those watching from the United States, coverage will begin at 7:30 a.m. on NBCSN. (Here’s NBC’s complete broadcast schedule).

Don’t get that channel? You’ll need to pay, sadly. I really like the NBC Sports Gold Cycling Pass, which gives you a commercial-free stream as well as some handy race-tracking whatzits. The much cheaper option, however, is Peacock Premium, which costs $4.99 per month and will reportedly get you access to live coverage of every stage, though presumably with ads and without the whatzits.

If you can’t watch live and want access to replays, it appears Gold is your only way to go.

It's saying something that Stage 16 is one of the easier stages left. In the last 20 kilometers, riders will have to contend with a Category 1 summit and a steep Category 3 finish that should be conducive to exciting racing and potential time gaps on the general classification.

The profile seems tailor-made for a breakaway. The biggest question is whether any yellow jersey hopefuls feel spry enough to push the pace and create a shootout for the stage.

Expect Jumbo-Visma to once again take over the front of the peloton early and be VERY selective about who they allow to get away. They'll be wary of any riders from Ineos, UAE Team Emirates, Arkea-Samsic or Education First attempting to leak into the break. Primoz Roglic is oh-so-close to winning a yellow jersey, and he can't afford to lose seconds because a rival was allowed to launch a late attack with a teammate as a springboard.

Even if Jumbo-Visma manages to neutralize the GC battle, Tuesday should be a fun one-day stage, especially now that the competition for the polka dot jersey has begun in earnest. Will Sunday's breakaway of Pierre Rolland, Michael Gogl and Jesus Herrada continue their summit battles? Will Marc Hirschi and Nans Peters join in with so few stage-hunting opportunities left?

Tuesday should be good for some cheap thrills, if nothing else, but there's a chance it becomes a significant stage. Tadej Pogacar needs every second he can grab if he's going to win the yellow jersey, and we're down to just six stages.

Like a good Bleu du Vercors-Sassenage, Stage 16 should be a bold treat.

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