The Ultimate In-Depth Premier League 2020/21 Preview Part II
Picking up where we left off from Part I:
That brings us nicely into last year’s top six. In case you’ve forgotten, they finished, from sixth to first, Tottenham, Leicester, Chelsea, Man United, Man City and, of course, Liverpool.
Tottenham were one of five clubs to change manager mid season in 19/20, but the change from Mauricio Pochettino to Jose Mourinho raised the most eyebrows of all. Mourinho finished last season celebrating a sixth place finish that he will no doubt claim to be the greatest achievement in his career at the first sign of trouble at Spurs. He joined the club at 14th place, so on paper the task of bringing them back into the top six was impressive.
However, the gap between 14th and 5th the day Mourinho put pen to paper was only actually three points. By Christmas day, Spurs had climbed back up to seventh and were only six points off Chelsea in fourth and ahead of his old club Man United by one point.
Tottenham finished seven points behind both of his former teams.
Their post-lock-down form was inconsistent. The highs of beating Arsenal 2–1 were also marked by the lows of losing 3–1 to Sheffield United and that dismal draw away to Bournemouth was a real rock bottom performance.
Their new signings are quite interesting. For once, Tottenham have acted early in the market and brought in players in positions of weakness at a decent price. Matt Doherty (£15m) from Wolves and Hojbjerg from Southampton both fit the mould of a Mourinho player.
A backup option for Harry Kane is still needed, for the fifth Summer in a row. But the signing of Steven Bergwijn in January alleviated the pressure off the other attacking options and after six months of adjustment to English football, a first full season for the Dutchman will be one to keep an eye on.
The Mourinho downfall is inevitable, but usually there is a peak before the collapse. If Spurs can keep Kane fit, frustrate opponents in that Mourinho way and get a few lucky escapes then the potential is there for a top four push. But, on the other hand, the potential is also there for a bottom half finish and Mourinho to not make it to May.
When it comes to the transfer market, no club has been as active as Chelsea. They’ve been spending like it’s 2003. In has arrived Hakim Ziyech (£36m), Timo Werner (£47m), Ben Chilwell (£45m), Thiago Silva (free agent) and Kai Havertz (£72m).
Goalkeeper Edouard Mendy is expected to sign in the coming weeks, which will be a huge relief for everyone who watched Kepa Arrizabalaga’s attempts to disprove nominative determinism last season.
Any club that spends this amount of money in a single transfer window will have all eyes on them during the opening weeks of the new season.
To put into greater context, that adds up to £200m. Before the window, it was expected that due to the current pandemic and economic recession, most Premier League clubs, and across Europe, spending would be down.
Juventus CEO Andrea Agnelli spoke about the state of top European clubs’ finances being impacted by the coronavirus crisis, saying he expects clubs to take the brunt of the hit to revenue.
“We are looking at top revenue decreases of approximately €4 billion in the next two years, and according to FIFA 90% of those topline losses will be borne by clubs,” said the Italian.
Someone should tell Chelsea because they are blowing their rivals out of the water with their level of spending. Now, most Chelsea fans will point to their transfer ban last season and say that this is simply making up for that lack of spending.
However, during their transfer ban they were able to sign Matteo Kovacic on a permanent basis on a £40m deal, and were able to sign Christian Pulisic (£57m) in January 2019 in anticipation of their upcoming transfer ban. Effectively making it the least effective punishment they could’ve faced.
How this manages within the rules of Financial Fair Play is not in the remit of this preview, but it will be interesting to see how this window impacts their spending in future windows.
What of the players they’ve actually signed though? Well, on paper, it all looks very exciting. Werner scored 28 goals from an xG of 22.1 in the Bundesliga last season. It sounds even more impressive when converted to per 90, where he managed .9 goals a match.
His compatriot Havertz was a breakout star in the Bundesliga last season. For Bayer Leverkusen he managed .62 goal contributions per 90. He ranked ninth in the league for shot creating actions (SCA) per 90 (4.29) and ranked 33rd for goal creating actions (GCA) per 90 (.51) in a side that finished fifth in the league. These numbers are impressive for a 21 year old playing for a mid table side. The big question will obviously be can they transition that form into the Premier League.
We have seen in the past how players can struggle to adapt to the English game in their first season. But for the price of entry, they will have to come good and quick. Over the years the likes of Alvaro Morata and Fernando Torres have struggled after arriving for the Blues, they can ill afford another flop from any of these new players.
Chelsea’s biggest problem last season wasn’t scoring goals, they scored 69 and ranked third in the league. However, they really struggled with conceding goals, they let in 54 which was only 12th best.
So, their solution to this problem? Buy even more attacking players!
Ziyech from Ajax was the first announced, which feels like a lifetime ago. His arrival very much signalled the end for both Willian and Pedro at the club, which is positive and smart business.
However, Callum Hudson-Odoi will have plenty of reason to feel aggrieved. Frank Lampard came to Chelsea with the promise he would deliver substantial first team minutes for Chelsea’s youth players.
Finally, after years of sending the army of youth players out on loan, there was a clear pathway to playing for Chelsea Football Club.
Hudson-Odoi featured for all of 863 Premier League minutes in 19/20. And while Mason Mount (2,867) and Tammy Abraham (2,215) managed over 2,000 minutes, only Reece James (1,515) and Tomori (1,291) achieved over 1,000. And as mentioned, Tomori is potentially moving on loan to Everton, Tariq Lamptey (32 minutes) now is a Brighton player and most notably, Abraham has been replaced in the pecking order by Olivier Giroud (33… years old) and Werner.
But Chelsea have spent in defence. Chilwell brings Premier League experience, but is he that much better than what they have? He will firmly be replacing Marcos Alonso at left back, but his numbers going forward simply aren’t as good. Defensively he is more solid, but only in the air. For near £50m, he doesn’t really stand out as a serious upgrade on the Spaniard.
[Ben Chilwell compared to Marcos Alonso (2019/20)]
Silva coming in at the heart of the defence will certainly bring experience. Such as the experience of captaining the side that lost 6–1 to Barcelona, captaining the Brazil side that lost 7–1 to Germany (albeit from the stands as he couldn’t just help needlessly standing in David Ospina’s way 64 minutes into the quarter final). Can the almost 36 year old handle the pace of the Premier League? There is serious doubt surrounding this and this whole signing frankly stinks.
Of course, I’m willing to be wrong on this one, but this whole deal smells and we might look back on it in May and wonder why it was sanctioned. A failure to adequately improve the defence means that Chelsea will likely be looking to win a lot of games 3–2 and 4–3. That sure sounds exciting, but they will continue to be frustrated into 1–0 defeats, just as they suffered from last season.
For £200m a title challenge is to be expected, but with the 4–3–3 concept that Lampard is looking to deploy, with Havertz and Mount playing in a ‘free eight’ role a la Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva at Man City under Pep Guardiola, it is hard to see how Chelsea will have a control on any side that sits deep and looks to counter quickly on the break.
N’Golo Kante sitting behind the two midfielders will be asked to manage a massive workload, essentially plugging gaps across the pitch as they appear as if playing the mallet game at the circus. Last season he could only remain fit for 1,732 league minutes. This was a massive 44% drop off compared to the 3,092 minutes he played the season before.
It’s been an exciting transfer window, their biggest since Roman Abramovich initially bankrolled the early success of Jose Mourinho, but there are still a lot of obvious problems with the squad and it remains to be seen if Lampard is the man to solve those problems. But a title challenge is well out of the picture.
Can Manchester United claw back some dignity and have a go at the title they last won seven years ago? Well, to put it simply, no.
The addition of Donny van de Beek (£35m) from Ajax, while a good one to the squad, will not be enough to catch up the 33 points they finished behind rivals Liverpool last season. Though more transfer business does look likely, rumours of Jadon Sancho persist and links to Sergio Reguilon are still out there in the wild.
The current squad was quite obviously galvanised by the January signing of Bruno Fernandes (£49.5m), who helped propel them into the Champions League places come July 26.
However, the amount of penalties earned by the Red Devils last season (14) should be seen as a concern. It was a Premier League record of penalties and can’t surely be matched in the upcoming campaign.
Learning how to create chances and then take them will be required, their number of non-penalty goals (56) is a poor return for such a mouthwatering attack. Their total goals per game average did rise from 1.5 to 2.14. However, their xG per game stayed the same at 1.74.
It’s of course a small sample size but it is quite interesting that their xG remained the same.
This is where Sancho comes into the conversation, his numbers in Germany are quite ridiculous. In his two seasons in the Bundesliga he has scored 29 and assisted 30. He is fourth for SCA (124) and SCA per 90 (4.88) in the league. He is top of the league in GCA (32) and GCA per 90 (1.26). The majority of those GCAs have come from regular live passes (25), but he has created goals from set pieces (2), dribbles (3) and shots (2).
The reports indicate that the £108m asking price is a stumbling block for United. Their most recent bid of £90m plus £18m in add ons was rejected as Dortmund are asking for the whole fee guaranteed. But it’s hard to see how this isn’t a bargain for United. His ability, let alone his potential, is sensational and whatever club he ends up playing for next will be very thankful for Ed Woodward’s negotiation shenanigans. To be frank, just look at his radar over the last two seasons, it is ridiculous.
[Jadon Sancho, Bundesliga & Champions League (2018/2020)]
Of the squad that is there, it is paper thin. As covered by Carl Anka over at The Athletic, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has been reluctant to use his substitutes and it is obvious why. When you have the likes of Paul Pogba, Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford and Fernandes on the pitch, what are the odds that taking one of them off for Fred or Scott McTominay or Andreas Pereira will increase their odds of scoring a crucial goal?
They were defensively very solid in 19/20. Though Harry Maguire makes for a great punchline (particularly in light of the Greek situation), United only conceded 36 goals last season and ranked third behind only Liverpool and Man City.
Between a solid defence and an improving attack, avoiding any major injuries to the main starting XI players will be crucial if they are to remain in the top four this season.
This means that for most Man United fans, they should look away now. For this season promises yet another title race featuring two of their most hated rivals in Liverpool and Manchester City.
With them holding one title apiece in their recent rivalry, this latest instalment could be the last in a fitting trilogy. The first featured one of the most intense races to the finish ever seen as both clubs won their last nine games. The follow up sequel couldn’t quite manage the same intensity as Man City fell away while the Reds blew the league away, only dropping two points from their first 27 games.
When a league title is won in such dominant fashion (an 18 point gap to second) it is customary for the winner to build upon that squad to weed out complacency and breed new competition from within.
But at Liverpool, the only signing of the Summer has been Konstantinos Tsimikas (£11.7m). He has come in as depth for Andy Robertson, who played 3,111 league minutes in 19/20, the third most of any Liverpool player. This seems a sensible move that will improve the side and ease the pressure on the Scot. But is this a sensible transfer strategy not to improve the starting XI at all?
Well Manchester City have certainly looked to strengthen. Nathan Ake (£40m) and Ferran Torres (£20m) aren’t quite Lionel Messi, but they both will give City much needed squad depth. When Aymeric Laporte got injured early last season it effectively ended their title bid.
His five month lay off significantly weakened City, who opted to use Fernandinho as a makeshift replacement. The idea never worked and they looked more vulnerable than ever to quick counter attacks as Rodrigo simply couldn’t match the Brazilian’s efforts of disruption from defensive midfield.
The loss of Leroy Sané was also felt throughout the season. His partnership with fellow wide forward Raheem Sterling was the most dangerous in the league and there were many matches where the added dimension of the German’s speed and left-footedness was clearly felt. As good as Riyad Mahrez is, his link up play, reading of the game and natural talent just isn’t at the same level.
[Riyad Mahrez, colour (2019/20) compared to Leroy Sané, black (2018/19)]
What Sané lacks in progressing the ball forward through passing, relative to Mahrez, he more than makes up for it with his incredible dribbling abilities.
Picking between these two sides is difficult. Missing out on Werner was a huge blow to Liverpool’s Summer plans and could be a key difference come the end of the season.
What most sticks out in this particular title race is the figure of Pep Guardiola. He has never spent this much time at a single club. He has also never had to reclaim a title he lost the previous season. We are in totally uncharted waters and this makes wondering what happens next a complete mystery.
All logic dictates that City will come back stronger, hungrier than ever. The wounded animal will begin its fight back as City and Guardiola look to reassert themselves as the best club in the country.
However, football can contradict logic in ways no one could have ever predicted.
This may be Guardiola’s fifth season at City, but it is effectively his fourth season with this squad. Considering the massive overhaul that took place in the Summer of 2017, that led to their 100 point season, the first season can almost be a total write-off for the Catalan.
When framed in that context, we can now compare Guardiola’s fourth season at Barcelona with what we might expect from City in this campaign. That season saw a drop off in form from Barcelona as they lost their first league title since Guardiola had taken over in 2008. They failed to defend their European crown, losing to a miserable Chelsea side in the semi finals.
This is not to say City will definitely fall away, and the logical argument made earlier in this section still holds. If everything goes to plan, City are probably close favourites. But for Liverpool, the hope should be there that this could be another lame year from City.
Liverpool will struggle to match the level of dominance they achieved last season. Though the same was said at the start of the last campaign and they went from 97 points to 99 so maybe this team can just keep going. But a drop off is to be expected. They didn’t need 99 points to win the league last season, to do so was more a flex of their powers and 99 points will likely not be needed this season either.
For the first time since 2016, it seems very possible that we see a winner with sub-90 points. Of course, earning over 90 points has only been done a small number of times in the Premier League’s history and isn’t necessarily normal, so seeing it regress closer to the 80 point mark will hopefully lead to a more exciting title race and a more interesting league season.
If the last season was the strangest ever, then this is the beginning of the new normal. What that will look like over the course of nine months remains to be seen but hopefully everything can go as planned without any major issues.
The odds are players will get infected, the odds are matches will be impacted by it, but the sport has chosen to keep moving on. The league must also clamp down on racism. When the players unexpectedly took a kneel in line with the Black Lives Matter Movement, it was a great moment of unity.
The league must highlight the players as they continue to use their voice and it cannot back down anymore than it already has in changing their messaging from support of the Black Lives Matter movement to a pithy No Room for Racism tagline.
Most of all, let’s hope there isn’t another pause that lasts 100 days, 48 has been enough as it is.