The Ultimate In-Depth Premier League 2020/21 Preview
Stats from fbref, courtesy of Statsbomb, unless otherwise stated. Figures from Transfermarkt. Graphs from footballslices & @robinwilhelmus
If the 100 days between the day Premier League football put its season on hold felt like a century then the 48 days between the end of that campaign and the next one felt like barely a minute. Sure, there’s been other football matches to keep us occupied, we all enjoyed the new, strange Champions League format that followed. But blink and we’ll have missed the offseason.
So, what can reasonably change in the space of 48 days for us to think of the new wonderful hope that usually comes with a new Premier League season?
Here, I will try to break it down team by team going through the league table. First off, the newly promoted sides:
Over these 48 days Leeds United, West Brom and Fulham have all been working on improving their squads as they all return to the top division.
Leeds made the biggest splash in the transfer market, signing Spanish forward Rodrigo from Valencia for £27m. Rodrigo endured a difficult 2019/20 in Spain, but so did Valencia as a whole. His performance in 18/19 was much better under manager Marcelino as he guided them into the Champions League. His xG per 90 dipped from .45 down to a much less respectable .27 in La Liga over these two seasons. But under Marcelo Bielsa, Leeds fans will be hoping the Argentine can inspire Rodrigo back to his old form.
[Rodrigo 2018/19 (colour) compared to Rodrigo 2019/20 (black)]
They also confirmed the permanent signing of Helder Costa from Wolves for £16m. Costa spent last season at the club on loan, starting 33 of their 46 league goals and chipping in with four goals and five assists from out on the right. Meanwhile defensive midfielder Robin Koch has been signed from Freiburg (£11.7m) and Illan Meslier (£5.85m) has been brought in to replace Kiko Casilla.
But with links to the likes of Julian Draxler and Edinson Cavani, as well as the signing of Rodrigo de Paul yet to be finalised, more big name signings look likely. Leeds are certainly looking in the best and most exciting position of the new boys. With the confirmation that Bielsa will stay at the club this season, expect Leeds to be an interesting side who perhaps blow hot and cold as his team adapt to the greater standards of their opponents.
Fulham and West Brom both went down to the Championship very recently so to bounce back in short time is impressive. But their form post-lock-down left a lot to be desired and it was difficult not to feel like the teams around them threw away their chances at promotion, rather than these two sides charging through the table.
Both sides have spent roughly a third of what Leeds have so far, with a large portion of their work in the transfer market being the confirmation of permanently signing players that spent last season at the club on loan. The likes of Anthony Knockaert for Fulham and Grady Diangana for West Brom.
However, Fulham’s spending doesn’t appear to be done, with deals for Kenny Tete (£3m) from Lyon and Alphonse Areola (loan) from PSG confirmed this week. The last time Fulham were promoted they overspent on players that didn’t fit in any coherent recruitment strategy, most notably Jean Michael Seri from Nice was signed as a marquee new player who never performed to the level expected of him.
This led to the ruthless sacking of Slavisa Jokanovic in November of that season with the club in last place. Claudio Ranieri would replace the Serbian but would fail to keep the club up and would also be sacked before the end of the season.
This should be a warning to Scott Parker, Ranieri’s replacement, that the club will do whatever it takes to stay up this season and a poor start could condemn him to a similar fate of his predecessors.
At West Brom, Slaven Bilic guided the Baggies to promotion in his first season in charge at the club. This will be Bilic’s second time managing a Premier League side. His first stint was with West Ham from 2015–2017. His first season in charge was similarly impressive as he guided West Ham to a seventh place finish, with wins against Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal and Man United in their final home game at the Boleyn Ground being big highlights.
However, his second season saw a massive drop-off as the club failed to quickly adapt to their new home stadium. Bilic was sacked and replaced by David Moyes, as the club battled a relegation fight, losing all the momentum gained from a European finish the year prior. This is Bilic’s chance to prove that West Ham was the problem and not the Croat.
Their rivals for relegation will be the likes of Aston Villa (17th), West Ham (16th) Brighton (15th), Crystal Palace (14th) and Newcastle (13th).
Aston Villa stayed up with the helping hand of Jack Grealish and an unprecedented Goal Line Tech malfunction. But with great fortune comes great opportunity. With that opportunity, Villa must be targeting an improved league finish and the signing of Ollie Watkins (£28m) from Brentford should go a long way to achieving that. Watkins scored 25 goals for the Bees, who lost the play-off final to Fulham.
Villa’s main problem last season was a lack of goals. 41 goals from 38 games is a poor return. Grealish was their main outlet, with the most goals (8) and assists (6). An easing off of the pressure and a spreading of the source of goals will be crucial for manager Dean Smith. Matty Cash (£14m) from Nottingham Forest has come in to replace Frederic Guilbert.
Goalkeeper was also a problem position last season, with three different players taking the position. Links to a £20m move to Arsenal’s Emi Martinez are promising, but nothing is certain yet and a failure to bring in a steady, long term no. 1 will be an issue if the deal doesn’t get over the line.
West Ham’s preseason has gone poorly to say the least. The move that saw Diangana join West Brom led to public criticism of the club from captain Mark Noble. One of their star players, Declan Rice, has also been heavily linked with a move away to Chelsea, and their only movement in the transfer market thus far has been the permanent signing of Thomas Soucek.
David Moyes’ immediate future was put in doubt early this week with rumours spreading that he would walk before the start of the season, but as of writing he is still in charge of the club and will have his work cut out for him this campaign. West Ham narrowly avoided relegation last season.
While West Ham were 10th in goals for (and xG for), their goals against (and xG against) was much worse, placing them 16th (and more alarmingly 19th) in the league. This reflects so poorly on their defence, and should be a major concern for fans. Without an obvious goalscorer, Michail Antonio was their top scorer with 10, they will need to once again rely on a decent spread of goals.
Last season, 15 players scored at least one league goal. With 14.2% of goals coming from set pieces, an overreliance on that method of goalscoring could also be problematic. Goals from set pieces aren’t a reliable form of goalscoring, so expect that number to even out over the course of a whole season. The problems are certainly there for a relegation battle, and don’t be surprised to see them sucked in the dropzone throughout the season.
Brighton, however, have had a much more promising preseason. New signings Adam Lallana (free agent) and Joel Veltman (£2m) will add some nice squad depth to a promising first season under new Graham Potter. Changing from Chris Hughton to Potter was a big risk, but sticking with Potter during a tough first half of the season proved the smart decision as they ultimately stayed up pretty comfortably for a finish.
The radically different style of football between the two managers meant that there were natural growing pains last season, but the benefit of that should mean an improved performance this season.
They will be aiming for a higher finish in the table, but getting inside the top half might prove one step too far just yet. January signing Tariq Lamptey will also be more settled in the squad now, and the retaining of Ben White will also be a big boost to the Brighton squad. For the Seagulls, a quiet season might be their best. A 12th or 13th place finish and reaching 40 points by the start of April would be a big step in the right direction as the club tries to assert itself as a mainstay Premier League club.
For Crystal Palace, they have become a mainstay in the Premier League themselves, gaining promotion in 2013. But where do clubs go from there? As Bournemouth and Watford found out last season, stagnation can be a huge negative factor in a club’s lifespan in the top division. Palace aren’t helped by the age of both their squad and their manager.
Roy Hodgson has done well since joining the club in 2017, but questions do remain about just how much longer the former England manager can keep going at the top level of the game.
Meanwhile, his squad were the oldest in the league last season. The red zone in the graph below shows the number of players leaving their ‘peak’ ages. There is an obvious reliance on players nearing the tail end of their careers. The test for Palace this season will be managing the extreme physical demands of this squeezed league schedule with a squad of overage players.
[Crystal Palace squad age profile relative to minutes played (2019/20)]
The good news for Palace, though, is that they’ve made two young, exciting additions to their attack which should alleviate some of the pressure on Wilfried Zaha. Michy Batshuayi has returned for a second loan spell at the club. Eberechi Eze (£16m) has also joined the club from QPR.
Eze is a very promising young talent, and while it would be unfair to expect too much from him too soon, the potential is there for him to add a new dimension to an otherwise bland attack.
But, ultimately, a relegation scrap could be what awaits the Eagles. Their post-lockdown form was horrendous, earning four points from nine games. Fortunately their form pre-lockdown meant they were never in any real danger, but that run of results leaves serious doubts over the sustainability of this team.
Although their opponents were the likes of Liverpool, Man United, Chelsea, Leicester, Wolves and Spurs, to lose seven games in a row at any point of a league season is dismal and cannot be repeated this year.
But of this group of sides, the one with the most promising preseason has been Newcastle. Despite over-performing their xG by the widest margin of anyone next season, which is a usual cause for concern, their additions during the transfer window have been very promising. Their overall xG was the lowest in the league and their actual goals were 14th.
Their top scorer was Jonjo Shelvey (seriously) with a total of six (6). But new signings Callum Wilson (£20m) and Ryan Fraser (free agent) should be cause for joy for Newcastle fans (if they know that emotion). Their linkup play in the past at Bournemouth has been incredibly impressive. No player pairing led to more goals than those two did in the 2018/19 season, and while they were not as free flowing in 2019/20 there are mitigating circumstances surrounding both players last season.
While Wilson played more matches and more minutes (35 and 2,908), he produced only 8 goals and 1 assist, .28 goal contributions per 90. This is way down on .82 goal contribution per 90 in 18/19 (from 2,528 minutes played). Meanwhile, Fraser’s minutes played dropped off significantly, 3,166 in 18/19 against 2,067 in 19/20. His goal contributions were also way down, bagging .22 goal or assist per 90 in 19/20, but .6 contributions per 90 in 18/19.
If those two can rediscover their partnership then scoring goals will be a much simpler issue for Newcastle and would solve a lot of their problems. The additions of Jeff Hendrick (free agent) and Jamal Lewis (£14.85m) are also promising additions that will deepen the quality of depth in the squad.
The next section of clubs are perhaps those in the most difficult spot of any in the league. That mid table zone can be dangerous and any complacency can see them be sucked into an unsuspecting relegation tussle, but also any kind of consistent over-performance might see a push into the European places. Those clubs will be Everton (12th), Southampton (11th), Burnley (10th), Sheffield United (9th), Arsenal (8th) and Wolves (7th).
Everton’s position is the most unfortunate. The Toffees have gone nowhere but backwards ever since Roberto Martinez’s first season at the club, in which they finished 5th in 2014. Despite having spent plenty of money to overhaul the squad under the three previous managers, they’ve been unable to really improve or make progress. They appear to be stuck in an awkward space of too big to be dragged into any relegation battle but not competent enough to ever catch up to the big teams.
But with Carlo Ancelotti on board maybe now is the beginning of making up for lost time. While the Italian is not quite the manager he once was, this is still a three time Champions League winning coach. He’s got star power not seen at Everton in the Premier League era.
This has bore fruit in the transfer window. While over the years, the strategy in the market has been poor, leading to a mishmash squad of players who aren’t good enough for the big teams but good enough for Everton. But what they have achieved in the market this Summer has been genuinely impressive.
James Rodriguez (£20m) is the obvious standout, and despite a lack of gametime at Real Madrid, the Colombian is still a quality player and at 29, still has a few more years left to give. Allan (£22.5m) and Abdoulaye Doucoure (£20m) coming in also means that Everton now essentially have a whole new midfield, one which has been upgraded in every department.
Allan is one of the best ball winners across Europe, but he also has a great ability to progress the ball forward and could be the perfect partner to Doucoure and Rodriguez.
[Allan (2019/20)]
The potential loan signing of Fikayo Tomori from Chelsea will also be quite interesting. Tomori started out quite promising for Frank Lampard’s side last season, but was displaced by the end of the season, despite there not being any kind of improvement with more experienced heads. At the very least, Tomori will be a good addition to the squad, as depth will become as important as starting XI quality in this condensed season.
For Southampton, their turnaround last season was one of the defining narratives. But the manner in which they found their rhythm was much more important. The base left by the end of the season was enough that Southampton fans have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about their season for the first time since Ronald Koeman left.
Kyle Walker-Peters (£12m) has made his loan move permanent from Tottenham but the loss of Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg will be noticed. While the Dane doesn’t do any one job in midfield to an elite level, his ability to do a little bit of everything meant he was an important cog in Hassenhuttl’s machine. Although, the addition of Mohammed Salisu (£12m) from Villareal should help shore up the defence. While he is no ball playing centre back, his prowess in the air and in a tackle means he should be a fine helping hand at the back.
Southampton’s away form was also superb. They were the third best side in the league when on the road, earning 31 points from 19 games. But their home form is where they dropped off. They were the 18th best, or rather third worst, side at home. Winning only 21 points at home is relegation form, but it does mean that if they can find a way to improve that record while also maintaining their away form then there are obvious inroads as to how they move forward up the table.
But for Burnley, their 10th place finish last season might be a big ask to try to repeat this season. They struggled post-lockdown to manage the squad during an intense period of fixture pileup and they are yet to make any additions to their first team squad this Summer. In fact, in the loss of Jeff Hendrick, they’ve lost a man who played nearly 2,000 minutes last season.
Of this group of mid table clubs, they would be the biggest concern for getting sucked into a relegation battle. But in Sean Dyche, they have the right manager for the squad and his experience will have to count for a lot if they’re to avoid a Bournemouth-like fall from grace.
Sheffield United’s ninth place finish last season was almost a disappointment. That statement alone is a testament to the work Chris Wilder has done with the Blades. From League One to being in the conversation for European places up until the final few games. It was a massive achievement for the management and playing staff. The fear now will be that they drop off, lose momentum, teams figure them out and then get relegated. The classic second season syndrome.
To fight against this they will need to score more goals than they did last season. They ranked 15th for goals scored in the league in 19/20 but their superb defensive record, fourth best in the league, meant they were never in any relegation trouble. But they outperformed their xG against, conceding 39 from an xG of 47.8. If this is to regress to the mean, without a requisite increase in goals then there is reason for slight concern.
This leads to their movement in the transfer market. Having lost Dean Henderson, who returned to his home club from loan, the signing of Aaron Ramsdale (£18m) from Bournemouth seems on the expensive side of things. While their performances without Henderson certainly showed that a replacement did need to be signed, to make that signing their top priority was puzzling. Though while they couldn’t pull off the signing of Watkins, perhaps they will now move on to other targets. A failure to land one could really harm their progress though.
A relegation battle does look unlikely though, it would take a total drop off in their defensive solidity to get dragged that far down the table.
Of these mid table clubs, the most highly touted has certainly been what Mikel Arteta has done to his Arsenal side. Despite finishing 8th last season, the North London club also won the FA Cup and climbed from 10th from when Unai Emery was sacked midway through the season.
Despite being the only Premier League club to force their players to take a pay cut, as well as the only club to let go 50 staff members, they have still found the change down the side of the couch to afford Gabriel Magalhães (£22m) and Willian (free agent) and William Saliba has returned from his loan back to Saint Etienne. They are also being linked with spending £50m each on Thomas Partey and Houssem Aouar from Atletico Madrid and Lyon.
While it remains to be seen whether they will actually sign those two, the additions of Mari and Gabriel will hopefully help their defensive issues. They ranked 8th in the league last season for goals against, and only 7th in goals scored. While Pierre Emerick Aubameyang managed to score 22 league goals, or .63 goals per 90, that equates to just under 40% of the league goals Arsenal scored in 19/20.
This kind of reliance on any one player for goals is quite concerning, especially when that someone is 31 years old. Any kind of long term injury and suddenly any kind of optimism for the Gunners will quickly fade away.
According to Understat’s metrics, Arsenal’s xG from when Arteta took over over-performed more than any other team in the league over that period. Their xG against also managed this. While they scored 31 and conceded 21 in Arteta’s 21 league games, they were expected to only score 28 and concede 31. This is a massive swing in goal difference.
In fact, following these metrics, Arteta’s not actually improved that much, if at all, on Emery’s figures. Emery’s side were scoring 1.38 goals per game, with an xG of 1.37 per game. Meanwhile Arteta’s side were hitting an average xG of 1.34 goals per game, but actually scoring 1.52. Of course, the limitations of xG means that it doesn’t quite account for the elite level of Aubameyang’s finish, but it does also mean that there is the potential that his goal return eases off at some stage in the season. It also means that the chance creation of Arsenal hasn’t much improved under Arteta, which is worrying.
This brings us along nicely to their midfield. They have secured Dani Ceballos on another loan from Real Madrid, who will be a solid member of their squad. He was very good last season at progressing the ball forward and linking the defence and attack. But as a creative outlet, Ceballos was not that guy for Arsenal. He managed two league assists.
Their top assister was Nicolas Pepe, with six, and Bukayo Saka, with five. While the main creative outlet should, in theory, be Mesut Ozil, his being frozen out of the squad has left a vacuum in that role that has yet to be filled. They managed some really good results at the end of the season, most notably against Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea. But they also suffered in games where they had the majority of possession.
The defeats to Tottenham and Aston Villa were the best examples of this. To progress this season, Arsenal need someone to unlock defences and so far this issue has not been addressed. Aouar would be a very exciting player to come in to fix this problem, but that deal hasn’t really gone anywhere in weeks so it’s unclear how concrete the links to that move are as of writing.
A lot of people have predicted Arsenal to make the top five, perhaps even break into the top four, but as they are now it would take an exceptional season from Aubameyang and a massive drop off from the other contenders to achieve this.
For Wolves, that step into the top six looks more doable. The natural progression of this side means it should be coming to its peak now. Their transfer business has certainly been eye-catching, but it has not done a lot to dismiss the idea that it is a hotbed for Jorge Mendes clients.
This frankly makes reading into how they’ll perform quite difficult. But over the last couple seasons Nuno Espirito Santo has done a good job in making Wolves hard to beat, they’re well drilled and have a very exciting attacking lineup.
The lack of European football must have been disappointing, especially following their run to the Europa League quarter finals last season, but given Nuno’s lack of squad rotation it might be for the best that their schedule will be lighter than 19/20.
We’ve seen in the past how only playing league games every week can benefit a side trying to break back into the European places and, considering the schedule ahead, that benefit might even be greater than ever before. They’ve already proven to have a very fit side, they were not hampered by injury all that much last season despite using the fewest amount of players in the longest campaign. If they are able to keep up their standard of football, and their fitness levels, then a push into the top six may await.
Apologies for the abrupt finish, but turns out this thing is too long to fit in one email. Who knew that was a thing? Anyway… to be continued…