Premier League 21/22 Bold Predictions
The Premier League is Back and It Feels So Good
Football fandom has many paradoxes but none are more relevant than how we all feel during the opening weeks of a new season.
The previous campaign is barely finished and the break barely seems long enough, and yet once the first ball is kicked it feels so good to be back. The shortest of waits can feel so long in the days before that first game.
This is particularly true going into the 2021/22 season. Some players only finished 2020/21 just last week. Richarlison and Pedri played the Men’s Olympic Gold Medal Match only to go straight back into the action with their respective clubs.
Meanwhile, for anyone who wasn’t watching pre-season friendlies, it feels like so long ago since a meaningful match took place - the Olympics really isn’t all that in terms of historical and competitive merit.
However, the previous season was so non-stop that any kind of break is worthwhile. Football fatigue sets in for fans too, you know. The relentless march of the last campaign was too much even for the most obsessive addicts.
But now, 33 days since Italy lifted the Euro 2020 crown, the club game is back.
Brentford and Arsenal kick off the Premier League season. The Bees become the 50th side to play a Premier League game. It is their first time in the top flight since 1947.
Thomas Frank’s side also finally get to experience a packed crowd in their new stadium. No better opening ceremony than against Arsenal.
They may not be quite the giant they once were under Arsene Wenger, but a London Derby against such a huge club is the perfect story to kick off what could be a very exciting season. An excellent mood-setter.
A lot has been written on expectations and preparations but now is the time where the talking stops. The managers and players have all had their say. Now it is time to deliver.
Over the course of the next nine months there will be ups and downs, swings and misses, joy and despair.
To get you ready, for one last time, here are five bold predictions for the Premier League season.
1. The Top Four is Gate-Crashed
James Maddison dismayed at missing out on top 4 on the final day of 2020/21
Leicester City have most prominently been knocking on the door for the last two seasons. They spent all of last season inside the Champions League spaces before blowing it at the final hurdle and they were third with two games to go in 2019/20. Coincidentally it was defeats to Tottenham that sent them packing both times.
However, they have strengthened this Summer. Patson Daka and Boubakary Soumare should be great additions to their squad. They also suffered from unfortunate injuries to multiple key players in both of those seasons that ultimately led to their downfall.
Leeds United and Tottenham both should be stronger too. Leeds have signed well and Marcelo Bielsa’s side ended last season in fine form. Tottenham have a new manager and some high quality players. If they can settle the Harry Kane situation, one way or the other, then they have great potential to do well.
Aston Villa have recruited well, too, despite losing their generational talent in Jack Grealish.
While the top four teams all look great, all it will take is for problems to arise at one club for there to be an opening and the teams below will be hovering like sharks waiting to capitalise.
Liverpool look most likely to have issues given their lack of Summer spending and their ageing squad. But frankly all of Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea have the potential to implode as well.
2. Jadon Sancho Looks Like a Bargain
He's here and he's perfect
The aforementioned Jack Grealish cost Man City £100 million. Romelu Lukaku cost Chelsea £97.5 million. Both signings have strengthened their respective sides going into the new season.
But both have received a ton of media attention for both the price of their signature and what it means for the squad. Grealish was a star at Aston Villa, but is he the missing piece of Pep Guardiola’s jigsaw?
Lukaku returns to the club he left eight years ago for £30 million having won Serie A with Inter Milan last season.
Meanwhile, for £73 million, Sancho has gone largely under the radar. The Englishman didn’t feature much at Euro 2020 and has spent the start of his career in Germany with Borussia Dortmund.
But for that price, relative to rival signings, and for the talent that he is, this should be a massive addition to the Man United squad. Sancho is already one of the best talents in the world. There is no need to wait two or three years for him to reach his potential, he is already there at only 21-years old.
Sancho also fits perfectly into United’s squad on the right flank. This has been a problem position for United for many years, but Sancho solves all of those problems.
United don’t quite have the complete squad, they will probably be a step below City and Chelsea - providing all three fire on all cylinders - but their attack is as exciting as any in Europe. They should be good value for some high scoring games this season and hopefully those dull big game 0-0 draws will be a thing of the past.
3. An All-England Champions League Final Beckons
You can look but you can't touch
The only thing standing in the way of the top English sides in Europe is Paris Saint-Germain. Given the economic problems of many European clubs, both big and small, the Champions League has never been easier to win.
Looking around and the quality isn’t as diverse as it has been. Bayern Munich and Juventus are in transition.
Real Madrid and Barcelona are both a mess. Atletico Madrid haven’t shown their steel in Europe since reaching the 2016 final. Inter Milan are in financial ruin, AC Milan haven’t been in the European Cup for a decade.
Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta are the interesting underdogs who could surprise a few, but Man City, Man United, Liverpool and holders Chelsea are the obvious favourites alongside a strong PSG.
It is very possible that this season we see a semi final lineup that looks like PSG and three English clubs, or even all four English clubs making the late stages.
Unfortunately, what was already a shrinking group of teams that could win the competition has shrunk even further. While it used to be a handful of clubs from a handful of nations it is now simply a few clubs from one country + a petro-state fuelled club who can withstand any financial burdens.
4. Brighton Finally Beat Themselves
The only thing standing in Brighton's way is Brighton
In terms of xGD/90, per fbref, Brighton were the fifth best team in the league last season. Their +0.37 xGD/90 only paled in comparison to the eventual top four teams, but their actual goal difference left them 12th in the league and their points tally put them 16th.
This was a total aberration in pure statistical terms. Not only did they under-perform xG and xG conceded, they did so massively. They scored 40 goals from 51.1xG and conceded 46 goals from 37.7 xG conceded. That’s a 20-goal swing from expectation to reality.
This combination killed their season. While they were one of the best teams in the league, they suffered incredibly poor finishing at one end and superb finishing at the other. This surely cannot last.
Meanwhile, the Seagulls have been one of the few Premier League clubs to actually recruit this Summer. They have brought in a handful of players and their only major loss has been Ben White, who they sold for £50 million. They may still yet inject that money back into the team, too, so further signings could still be on the way.
Graham Potter’s side won’t quite finish fifth, but they can still surprise a few and finish inside the top 10, and they could even put pressure on the European places. Last season showed they have the tools to do it, now will be the test of whether or not they can finally catch up with their numbers and finally beat their greatest enemy: themselves.
5. Sackings Will Continue to Decline
Big Sam is only a phone call away
Only four clubs decided to change managers during the 2020/21 season. West Brom, Sheffield United, Chelsea and Tottenham all pulled the plug mid-season.
Most notably, those four competed at total opposite sides of the table. Meanwhile, the mid table clubs all stuck by their man right until the final gameweek.
But then once the season was over, several clubs all parted ways. The likes of Crystal Palace, Fulham, Wolves and, again, West Brom all waited until the curtain was pulled down on the season to shake things up.
This feels like the start of a trend. Palace were never in real danger during the campaign, but it was obvious the club was in need of a refresh. Waiting to do so once the Summer started just made way too much sense and was best for all parties.
And looking at the 20 clubs going into this new season, there aren’t many who look to be hanging on by a thread. Watford will always be a danger, no manager ever seems to last at Vicarage Road, but everyone else seems secure.
Obviously all it takes is a run of poor form for things to change, but even the clubs who look to be in a relegation battle seem happy with their manager.
Ralph Hasenhüttl at Southampton has a tough job on his hands to keep the Saints up this season, but the boardroom seemingly understands the task at hand isn’t easy and knows that finding a more capable replacement will be extremely tough.
At the top of the table, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Jurgen Klopp and Guardiola are all very secure in their positions. Thomas Tuchel just won a Champions League at Chelsea, but then again Chelsea have traditionally been trigger happy.
Nuno Espirito Santo has only joined Tottenham, as has Rafa Benitez at Everton. However, a poor start to the season and Mikel Arteta could be in serious trouble at Arsenal.
In Closing
There’s a lot to look forward to this season and I’m certainly excited for the season to start again. There are a lot of issues for football to solve and this feels like a big juncture point for that, but the on-pitch action should be close and there might actually be a title fight this season.
Even still, there are a lot of fun teams in the Premier League, all trying to do their own thing and how each team handles the evolution of covid-ball will be fascinating.
The re-introduction of fans will also be massive. Last season I didn’t tend to notice their absence too much, but having them back in the Euros was amazing and made me really appreciate the power of a great atmosphere.
Roll on, 2021/22!