La Liga 2020/21: What to Expect at the Top
The new La Liga season started last weekend. Did you notice? No? Was it because Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid were nowhere to be found? Instead it is Valencia, the club who have had the Summer from hell, selling their best players at cut rate prices, who are currently top of the league having won their opening game 4–2 against Levante.
Three other teams are level with Valencia, meanwhile the rest of the top 10 are made up of the remaining six sides who all drew their opening game. The likes of Real Sociedad, Villareal and Celta Vigo all failed to find a winner in their first game back.
Fortunately you won’t have to wait much longer for one of the big teams to return, Real Madrid’s season starts on Sunday evening with an away trip to Sociedad.
While 2020 has been an extremely weird year, it is worth noting that Real Madrid have not signed anyone, and not only that but also don’t even appear close to doing so, and yet no one’s really batted an eyelid.
Of course, it helps when your fiercest rivals are having the most public and dramatic civil war raging inside their club, but since when are Real Madrid known for going under the radar?
We’ve all heard the main story. Lionel Messi wanted to leave Barcelona. No, really. The only thing stopping him was the small matter of a legal dispute over the legitimacy of a €700m release clause in his contract. Oh, that old thing.
However, the scandal doesn’t end there. Not only did they lose 8–2 to Bayern Munich in their last competitive game, the most humiliating Champions League exit yet, but the club president (who now faces what was seen as an unlikely vote of no confidence) has put almost every player up for sale.
Ivan Rakitic has already left, he’s re-joined Sevilla. Luis Suarez is also out the door, Juventus calls. Joining them at the exit door will no doubt be many others. But Barcelona have been so adamant that these guys must go now that they have waived any transfer fees.
The club was already struggling with a transfer budget in this coronavirus world, but now they have even fewer players than before and still just as little money.
What was saved on the wage bill simply won’t account for the transfer fees required to bring in replacements — though, maybe Messi’s might have?
Instead, the club have agreed deals to bring in new players, such as one with Lyon for Memphis Depay, but until they manage to sell anyone then they will be stuck in limbo until the window finally closes on October 5.
This kind of window was sorely needed following the defeat to Bayern, but not in this manner. The age profile of the team, as seen below, is one of the worst among Europe’s elite clubs.
Barcelona squad age profile graph 19/20
Here we can see a far too big a reliance on players well past their prime. An ageing Messi being given so many minutes can be forgiven, he is still the best player in the world after all, but for Gerard Pique, Jordi Alba, Arturo Vidal, Sergio Busquets, Suarez and Rakitic to spend that much time playing actual minutes for Barcelona Football Club shows ample reason why they were ran ragged by a much younger and fitter Munich side.
The saving grace of their season was the rise of Ansu Fati. The young La Masia graduate managed a very impressive seven goals and one assist in his debut season, from only 1,027 minutes no less. But looking for any other positives from 2019/20 is a struggle.
Manager Ernesto Valverde was sacked mid season, with the team checks notes top of the table at the time. Quique Setien would come in and they would fall to second following a disappointing post-restart run of form, leading to his sacking in August (though he is now suing the club over this).
Now it is Ronald Koeman’s turn at the wheel.
It really cannot be overstated just how much of a disaster of a Summer it’s been. This is really just the tip of the iceberg. Rarely has a club the size of Barcelona had such a circus follow them around for such a long time. And not only that, but the entire situation looks endless as they prepare to return for the new season with barely a full squad.
Real Madrid president Florentino Perez must have been licking his lips all Summer, never has he been so delighted to have the spotlight so firmly away from the league champions.
Their Summer hasn’t been too impressive either. But given the stability that Zinedine Zidane represents, especially when cast against the chaos of Bartomeu and Koeman, and the slightly better age profile of their squad, it is hard to look past them retaining their title.
Real Madrid squad age profile 19/20
Expect more of the same from Los Blancos this domestic campaign. However, while they should be seen as favourites for the league title, anticipate another short lived European run.
Their squad has yet to really move on from their miraculous three-peat of Champions League success, and largely failed to move on from the sale of Cristiano Ronaldo in 2018.
However, it is possible that Perez has started thinking long-term for Madrid. While they still utilise the ageing core of players that brought such success under Zidane’s first tenure, there is a much clearer identity in the profile of their squad compared to their great rivals.
An exciting group of young Spanish players are coming through, but the transition period into this new core will take another couple of years given their complete lack of spending. It’s a much slower process than what we’re used to seeing from Madrid, but it is still just as interesting nonetheless.
Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid, Spanish football’s wildcard in recent years and the only club to break the current duopoly in the last decade, remains that singular force that has the potential to break through.
Considering just how miserable everything is at Barcelona, this should be seen as a great opportunity to finish inside the top two again, having done so in 2019, 2018 and of course when they won the title in 2014.
Last year was very much a transitional season, the sale of Antoine Griezmann and the loss of Diego Godin meant that they lost two of their biggest players both on and off the pitch. Luis Filipe also left the club, a key defensive figure for the team.
Similar to Real Madrid, there has been a dearth of transfer activity this Summer. No new starting players have come in. But, given the likes of Joao Felix, Marcos Llorente, Mario Hermoso and Renan Lodi have now had a full year, expect more consistent performances.
Their 16 draws last season was the joint highest in the league and will be an area that Diego Simeone will be looking to improve on. That is simply too many ties to be able for a push for a title challenge.
If they can iron out those inconsistencies then there is no reason why Atletico can’t make a go of pushing their rivals all the way. Expect a closer and more engaging title race than in recent years. Real Madrid and Barcelona have never been more vulnerable. Their average points finishes are steadily declining from the glory days of Pep v Jose and Messi v Ronaldo.
A league without these three clubs is a bleak outlook. Last weekend we saw a brief glimpse of what a European Super League future might look like for Spanish football and it wasn’t pretty. So, let’s celebrate these teams’ return, but let’s hope the chasing pack continues to catch up, or the rest of La Liga will quickly be left behind.
For more, follow me on Twitter: @CheesyHartePun