Women's Soccer Returns to Richmond and Margins of Error
Cheers RVA!
Today temperatures will reach 88, slightly cooler than the expected heat coming later this week. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible with a 50% chance of precipitation.
the juice:
Women’s soccer is back in Richmond tomorrow evening at City Stadium, with the Washington Spirit facing the Chicago Red Stars at 7:30 pm.
The Summer Cup 2024 features the 14 teams from the National Women’s Soccer League and the top 6 teams from the top Mexican Women’s Soccer league.
Tickets are available on Seat Geek and starting around $30.
the pulp:
A 16-yr old boy died and four others were seriously injured including a pedestrian after a car crash in South Richmond late Friday night.
The RTD is reporting that the amount of sewage dumped into the James has already tripled the amount from 2023. The unusually high amount of rain in January was a major factor. While Richmond has 25 overflow outfalls across the city, 68% of the sewage passed through CS0 6, located near Mayo Island.
Relief points that allows sewage overflow to escape the system
the tangent:
Like many Americans interested in elections I’ve been looking at the polling numbers from before and after Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
Often you see polling data displayed with the margin of error in small font below the main graphic.
This method of communicating data seems misleading in that the average viewer may think the margin of error is how accurate the poll is overall, rather than a statistical calculation of the sampling accuracy of the poll.
The term should be margin of sampling error, and other errors should be noted:
coverage errors: not reaching certain types of people for any reason (landline, mobile, email, direct mail, in-person)
non-response errors: not reaching people who refuse to share their opinion or talk to pollsters
measurement errors: poorly designed questions, leading questions
All the above types of error do have an effect on polling and should be analyzed when determining the margin of error of a poll.
As an example, the industry standard for a statistical confidence level is 95%. So if Pennsylvania has 13 million people and CNN is displaying data with a 3% margin of error, that means they sampled 1000 people.
But what if they wanted a confidence interval of 99%, with the same 3% margin of error? Then they’d have to sample 2000 people. To achieve a CI of 99% with a margin of error of 1% = 8000 people, and so on.
I don’t think polling is completely useless, but the term margin of error needs more context.
the vibe:
Have a confident day RVA!
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