June 12, 2024

Wednesday, June 12, 2024. Annette’s News Roundup.

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Joe is always busy.

[Many] populations outside the United States hold a more favorable view of the president than of his predecessor when it comes to their handling of global issues, according to a survey published Tuesday by the Pew Research Center.

In most of the 34 countries surveyed, people had more confidence in Biden than Trump to “do the right thing regarding world affairs.” Biden’s approval was highest in European countries like Sweden, Germany, Poland and the Netherlands — the president has been a vehement supporter of Ukraine and NATO amid Russia’s invasion. He also polled higher in Asian nations like Japan and South Korea, where he has recently reaffirmed U.S. security commitments.

Biden also outranked Trump with neighbors Mexico and Canada, though Mexicans were not particularly confident in either leader: 36 percent said they had confidence in Biden to do the right thing, and 12 percent said they trusted Trump to do so. (Washington Post).

With his son Hunter on Tuesday.

"I will accept the outcome of this case," Biden said on Tuesday after news of the jury verdict was announced. The president said he'd "continue to respect the judicial process as Hunter considers an appeal. " (Axios).

Is [Hunter] Biden going to prison?

The likelihood that [Hunter] Biden is sentenced to prison is “pretty low,” said Jeffrey Brown, co-chair of Dechert LLP’s enforcement and litigation practice, who previously served as co-chief of the general crimes unit in the Manhattan U.S. attorney’s office.

“I think he has a lot of sympathetic factors in his favor that would argue for a non-incarceratory sentence,” Brown said. Those include [Hunter] Biden’s lack of criminal history, the likelihood that many people, including some prominent figures, will write to the judge in support of him and the fact that the charges against him aren’t ones that commonly go to trial.

The judge must consider sentencing disparities, Brown said, and “I’d be surprised if there’s a lot of precedent for people going to trial, getting convicted and sentenced to prison for this offense.” (Politico).

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Polls again.

From Simon Rosenberg - Biden Gains in 4 New Polls, Encouraging New Latino Poll, 538 Has Biden Slightly Favored - As I wrote Sunday, it would not be surprising to the race shift 2-3 points towards Biden after Trump’s dramatic 34 felony convictions.

While some of the early post-verdict polling didn’t find the election moving that much, the last 4 national polls released have all found the race moving towards Biden:

New York Times - Biden gains 2 points since April/May

Yahoo/YouGov - Biden gains 2, now up 46-44. “After Trump felony conviction, Biden leads for 1st time in months"

CBS News/YouGov - Biden gains 3, has 1 point lead now in the battleground states

Morning Consult - Biden gains 2, leads 44-43, “Biden leads Trump for first time in a month”

538 unveiled its 2024 forecasting model this morning and it gives Biden a 53% chance of winning the election. The key to how we win in this model is our strength in MI, PA, WI, the blue wall states which get us to 269 Electoral College votes, or check as I’ve been calling it.

Assuming we win MI, PA, WI, winning either AZ, NC or NE-2 (our state targets) gets us to 270 or as I’ve been calling it, checkmate. Regardless of this initial 538 data run, I think we are most likely to win AZ and NC due to the extremism of AZ’s Kari Lake and NC’s Mark Robinson, who are likely to bring down the entire GOP brand in both states; and NE-2, the blue dot, where current polling has us ahead. There is a lot of data nerdery in this new 538 model but the bottom line is that it currently favors Biden, which is where I believe the election has been for some time now. (Hopium Chronicles).

Majority of Jews back Biden over Trump, say antisemitism 'serious' problem: Poll.

A majority of American Jews support President Biden’s reelection campaign and say they trust him over former President Trump to combat the “serious” problem of rising antisemitism, according to a survey published Monday.

The American Jewish Committee’s (AJC) 2024 survey of American Jewish Opinion — conducted March 12 to April 6 — shows Jews largely have not soured on the president, despite some rhetoric suggesting Biden’s policies on Israel and Gaza could hurt him among Jewish voters.

In a hypothetical match-up held today, 61 percent say they would support Biden, 23 percent say they would support Trump and 10 percent say they would support “someone else.”

The results are similar to the share of respondents in the poll who say they voted for Biden in 2020 (64 percent) and who say they voted for Trump in 2020 (21 percent), suggesting there hasn’t been much movement in their positions.

(The Hill).

Swing states

Wisconsin.

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The Alitos.

Aren’t you glad they are not your neighbors!

The audio with Justice Alito

Joyce Vance - “The New York Times describes the reporter involved [ in recording the Alitoslike this: “Lauren Windsor, a liberal activist who has turned a hidden camera, a Tennessee drawl and a knack for disarming her targets with words of sympathetic conservatism into a loaded political weapon. Posing as a true believer — in Mr. Trump or a stolen 2020 election — Ms. Windsor approaches Republican leaders at party gatherings and tries to coax them into revealing things that they might wish to keep in the G.O.P. family.” Among her other successes, she got then Alabama Senator-elect Tommy Tuberville to reveal some Senators were considering refusing to vote to certify President Biden’s win ahead of January 6. When he was still the Republican nominee for governor of Virginia, Glenn Youngkin told her he couldn’t publicly push his anti-abortion views because it would cost him independent voters. In other words, she’s very good at what she does.

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Trump’s rants this weekend.

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Your daily reminder.

Trump is a convicted felon.

On May 30th, he was found guilty on 34 felony counts by the unanimous vote of 12 ordinary citizens.

He will be sentenced on July 11th.

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