December 11, 2024

Wednesday, December 11, 2024. Annette’s News Roundup.

Remember the good ole days.

If Trump is able to impose tariffs and if Trump is able to cause a labor shortage because of his immigration policies - if, in short, Trump creates a recession and causes inflation too, remember the good ole days.👇

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The Senate has new blood and some good old blood too.

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Get ready to win the House cleanly in 2026.

How House Democrats flipped New York and California seats

Finding the right candidates is key.

George Whitesides, right, greets attendees along with Rep. Adam Schiff (D-California), left, at Whitesides’ campaign headquarters in Santa Clarita, California, on Oct. 5.

In an adverse political environment, Democrats found success in House races, increasing their seats from 213 to 215 and reducing the Republicans’ majority at the start of the session to just two seats (helped by President-elect Donald Trump’s selection of three GOP House members for Cabinet positions). If not for the extreme Republican gerrymandering in North Carolina that wiped out three Democratic seats, Democrats would have won the majority.


Despite talk of drop-off in blue states, Democrats’ most impressive gains came in New York (4th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts) and California (13th, 27th and 45th Congressional Districts). How did they do it?
Unsurprisingly, money is essential. California candidates “routinely posted seven-figure fundraising hauls, putting them in a position to more efficiently buy TV airtime,” Politico reported, with help from “the party and major super PACs, which early on oriented their funding goals in anticipation of the high cost of playing in those races.” Yasmin Radjy, executive director of the progressive PAC Swing Left, told me, “These victories were made possible by deep, year-round grassroots organizing and fundraising at scale, which freed candidates to spend more time talking directly with voters.”

In New York, with 40 offices in seven key districts and 100 staffers, “Democrats linked state and local party operations,” NPR reported, resulting in “over 2 million contacts with voters between knocking on doors and phone calls” by early October. Moreover, Democrats focused on two issues that flummoxed them nationally, crime and immigration. (“The move to lean in on crime and border issues follows the blueprint Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi used in February, to win a special election.” Suozzi held his seat.)

Democrats also benefited from outside groups, regardless of ideology, that engaged in grassroots organizing — adopting the model of a continuous campaign. Leah Greenberg, head of Indivisible, tells me, “Indivisible groups on the ground in each of the target districts worked for the full two-year cycle as part of a grassroots-labor partnership with battleground New York, and the results are clear.” She added, “Deep investments in accountability plus organizing plus [get out the vote] flipped the seats even in the face of tough national currents.”

But ultimately, good candidates win competitive races. Derek Tran, for example, ousted Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in California’s 45th District. In a heavily Vietnamese American district, Tran, a son of Vietnamese refugees and an Army veteran, made his background a “key component” of the race, allowing him to “connect with the Vietnamese population that Democrats believe no prior candidate could,” USA Today reported. His father’s emotional flight from Vietnam and Tran’s military service resonated with voters who tilt more conservative than other Asian Americans.


In California’s heavily Republican 27th District, Democrat George Whitesides finally prevailed in knocking out GOP Rep. Mike Garcia. Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff and former CEO of Virgin Galactic, was able to self-fund; moreover, conservative voters warmed to his aeronautics and business profile. “Whitesides not only held on to Democratic voters, but managed to keep many moderates and even made inroads into the GOP by promising to lower taxes, lower the cost of living, alter the Prop 47 crime law (a 10-year-old measure that reduced penalties for certain crimes), take a strong stance on crime, and create a stronger border,” the California Globe reported. (Californians also passed Proposition 36, which reinstated stiff penalties for theft and drug trafficking.)


Likewise, Adam Gray edged out the Republican incumbent in the 13th District in the agriculture-rich Central Valley. Gray called himself the “most moderate Democrat in California.”
And in California’s 47th District, Democrats managed to hold a seat vacated by Rep. Katie Porter. Korean American Dave Min (“who embodied the demographic changes that had transformed ruby-red Orange County to a purple battleground”), Politico reported, “did it by running offense on public safety, overcoming his party’s soft-on-crime stereotype and his own drunken driving arrest.”

In New York, Josh Riley ousted GOP Rep. Marcus J. Molinaro in the 19th, State Sen. John Mannion knocked out Rep. Brandon Williams in the 22nd, and Laura Gillen beat Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in the 4th. The winners all emphasized border security and the cost of living while leaning into abortion rights.

Rep. Pat Ryan (D-New York) told CNN: “It’s really about who is fighting for the people and who is empowering and enabling elites.” On election night, Suozzi told reporters much the same thing: “You’ve got to show people that all you want to do is solve problems and make people’s lives better.”


Matt Bennett, executive vice president of public affairs for the center-left think tank Third Way, tells me, “As we have seen in every cycle, and especially since 2018, it is generally only the moderate candidates who flip seats from red to blue.” He adds that in his hometown of Syracuse, Mannion “won back a seat that a more liberal candidate fumbled away in both 2018 and 2020.” The same occurred in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, “where Janelle Bynum took back a seat that a liberal candidate had lost in 2022.”

Democrats failed, however, in the race against Rep. Michael Lawler in New York’s 17th Congressional District. As many predicted, former congressman Mondaire Jones was far too progressive for the district, despite his reinvention as a moderate. Since he had relocated from New York City, he also got slammed as a carpetbagger. He lost badly (even offending progressives when he endorsed moderate George Latimer over a far-left incumbent in the 16th).


Rep. Ann Kuster (D- New Hampshire), who chairs the moderate New Democrat Coalition in the House that will have 110 members, told me, “Despite political headwinds, New Dems outperformed the top of the ticket and won in districts Trump carried in California and New York by focusing on a common-sense message and the issues that matter most to the American people, including the economy, border security and public safety.”


The formula is simple: Organize continually; unite progressives and moderates in “fighting” for ordinary Americans and abortion rights; and carefully match candidates to their district. As Bennett puts it, “It isn’t complicated: Moderates win races in purple districts and build the majority, while progressive candidates generally just make blue seats.” (Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post)

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A bit of humor.

Black humor, of course. It’s 2024.

Odd to put E.Jean Carroll and Trump under one section, for any issue other than rape.

Oh goodness, now I have caught the dark humor bug too.

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A worthwhile though long read to raise your spirits - A call to action.

Goodbye Resistance, Hello Opposition

For those of us who refuse to get in line, to accommodate the rollback of civil and human rights, what is our choice? I think the answer is opposition.

1. E​​ight years ago, a large chunk of this country was mobilized to protest against the incoming first Trump Administration, aghast at the “short-fingered vulgarian” and the crude victory he’d narrowly won thanks to an Electoral College fluke. The liberal establishment rose up as one, the Women’s March kicked off, and millions committed themselves to forming a muscular and well-organized resistance movement to Trump and his perverted MAGA ideology. The assumption was that the election was an ugly aberration, and that the actual majority of good-willed people (after all, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote convincingly) would band together to “resist” the pull of the country toward extremism and incompetence. What few will admit now is that it worked. The Resistance was a successful political movement to build a network of grassroots supporters spot-welded to institutional structures to symbolically oppose Trumpism and win the country back. It brought people into political activism who never were there before. We had clear goals. And we won a lot. The Resistance triumphed in the 2018 mid-terms, taking back the House, and it defeated Trump himself in 2020, while also capturing the Senate. Then, with Joe Biden in office taking on Covid and the economy, The Resistance simply melted away. Legion were the postings in various Indivisible groups and on Twitter accounts of activists breathing a very public sigh of relief and positing that they were glad they didn’t have to worry about Washington DC every single day. Big marches became smaller; Zooms were easier and everyone could multi-task through them. Like an army demobilizing after the armistice, the broad center-left coalition turned in its uniforms and lost its mojo. The republic was safe. Until it wasn’t. We all know the short version. We concentrated on governance, getting back to our day jobs, letting politics go. Ignoring the trolls. They stoked the fire of anger, intolerance, and resentment and let it burn across drought-parched hills and fields that we neglected to irrigate. The House fell. The Supreme Court used its radical right majority. Biden grew old and noticeably slower, despite vast policy successes and an empathetic governing style. The world seethed, incumbents lost everywhere, and authoritarians gained. Populism - which never benefits liberalism, down through the ages - swirled in its classic helter-skelter scapegoat seeking ravagement. Conspiracy theorists harvested clicks. News media failed and reporters groveled for spoon-fed scoopery. Institutional trust continued to drop, and academic political scientists often looked the other way. The justice system seized up or crept along like garden snails on a summer patio. A handful of techno-oligarchs seized the levers of influence. Some of it was the endless pendulum swinging, and some of it was malpractice. So we are here, and there will be no “resistance.”
2. There are, to my way of thinking, two reasons for this. The first is fatigue. We are simply tired of this specific fight with Trump himself, with foolish and hateful MAGA neighbors, with the complicit and weak news media, with the decentralized and historically enervated Democratic Party. And frankly, with ourselves. Because we didn’t get it done, and because each of us has become something of a one-note bore at the American garden party. We look in the mirror and an older and more shopworn version of ye olde resistance warrior stares back. And just as frankly, the rest of this country doesn’t look so hot in that particular looking glass. You morons chose this degenerate fool. You’ve got him. Let’s see how it goes. You broke it, you bought it. Enjoy the tariffs. Fuck around, find out. That’s also the fatigue talking. The second reason is the lack of institutional strength. And in some that’s a lot tougher, because it’s not about vibes and the latest malarkey examining what “Kamala shoulda done.” It’s about long-term strategy, commitment, and structure. Americans’ trust in the Federal government is nearing an all-time low, according to the most recent Pew numbers, despite the evident policy successes of the Biden Administration. Trust in political parties, education, the corporate sector, nonprofits and yes, even scientists are all way down. This is an era of conspiracy theory, disinformation and a perverse sense that unseen forces are rigging the game against everyday people. (The irony is incredible: this is easily the most transparent age of information and data in human history). Yet, some of that distrust is clearly earned - vast inequality of opportunity, limited benefits of living in a liberal democracy, rights curtailed and unequal justice all have bi-partisan reactionary appeal. The sense that the system is broken - or “rigged” - is pervasive across ideological lines, and everywhere in western democracies Obviously, the path of far right authoritarianism is much worse than the by-products of any of these factors. A functioning liberal democracy supported by a free and vibrant civil society is the only antidote that can actually make our society better, fairer and more prosperous. Even in its inherently imperfect form. We have left that particular roadway, however - by a narrow plurality, yes - but nonetheless a clear result.
3. For those of us who refuse to get in line, to accommodate the rollback of civil and human rights, to normalize Trump and Musk and their goons, to flee the country or simply hide away from public life, what is left?

I think the answer is opposition. That is to say, using every point of leverage, every fair court of law, every election - local and otherwise - and every possible venue to actively (rather than symbolically) oppose the take-over by this group of anti-democracy radicals. This is not just about marches and speeches and hashtags and virtue signalling; it’s about a long-term hands-on fight to push liberal democracy back to the center of this country’s public commons. I agree with the call to arms issued by pro-democracy lawyer Marc Elias last week:

Hoping that Trump fails is not a plan. We must develop and foster new movements, structures, tactics, platforms and leaders to oppose Trump and articulate a positive vision. In most democratic political systems, this is referred to as the opposition. Rather than a resistance, the concept of an opposition is more comprehensive and durable. It recognizes that there are no time limits to the effort.

Forceful opposition means, first of all, realizing where we are and how we got here - and just how tough this fight is going to be. We’re down. They have the White House, Congress and the Supreme Court. But we’re far from powerless. Their House majority is slim and the mid-terms are just 23 months away. There are 23 Democratic governors. Trump is Trump - which is to say thin-skinned, easily manipulated, pompous, rather stupid, and deeply incompetent. His nominations are already a disaster. Many courts (local, state and Federal) are still functioning the way they should. Trump’s overseas paymaster and hero figure Vladimir Putin is weakened by the Ukraine quagmire and the devastating loss of his foothold in Syria. Would-be dictator Elon Musk is already nibbling at Trump’s heels, eager to serve as co-President or worse. Things change quickly.

Political victories should be the paramount goal. “Obtaining power in our system of government means running well-funded and professionalized campaigns,” wrote Elias. “Now is not the time to unilaterally disarm in the service of some higher principles. All legal tactics must be on the table. Ideological fights must yield in service of winning. We must recruit and fund candidates who can win their state or districts.”

I’ll have more to say on this in future posts, but I want to add one critical thought: we have to buck up.

If I had a dollar for everybody who’s told me in person, via text, on Facebook, on Bluesky or X, just how afraid they now are, I’d be a rich man.

Well, I'm not afraid. There’s no time or purpose for fear. Previous generations defeated Hitler. Americans like you laid their bodies down for civil rights. They walked across beaches into machine gun nests. They crossed the Edmund Pettis Bridges into truncheons and horse hooves. So screw the fearfulness - and fear itself.

Everyone wants to live in interesting historic times when they’re tucked up with a treacly novel and a cuppa tea in a nice warm house. Well, now you’re living the story. Get to it. (The Liberal by Tom Watson. Substack).

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Some fight on.

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There are many good people.

James Patterson gives $500 bonuses to 600 independent bookstore employees.

BOSTON - Bestselling author James Patterson is once again showing his support for independent booksellers this holiday season.

The "Alex Cross" series writer is donating $300,000 out of his own pocket this year for his annual Holiday Bookstore Bonus Program. Six hundred employees at independent bookstores around the country are getting a $500 bonus.

"I've said this before, but I can't say it enough - booksellers save lives," Patterson said in a statement to the Associated Press. "What they do is crucial, especially right now. I'm happy to be able to acknowledge them and their hard work this holiday season."

Workers could nominate themselves for a bonus, or they could be nominated by customers, store owners, coworkers, people in the publishing business or even authors. There's only one question in the application process: "In 250 words or less, why does this bookseller deserve a holiday bonus?"

Patterson has awarded millions of dollars to bookstore workers, librarians and teachers, the AP reports.

We all continue to be awed by, and grateful for, Mr. Patterson's continuing support of independent booksellers," American Booksellers Association CEO Allison Hill said. "It means so much to have him recognize the valuable role booksellers play in the industry and we appreciate his financial generosity as well as his generosity of spirit." (CBS News)

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