May 16, 2024

Thursday, May 16, 2024. Annette’s News Roundup.

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Debates. First debate is supposed to be June 27.

Watch the President. 👇

Joe made up his mind about when and where to debate.

Trump is inappropriate, of course. 👇

What we know, and don't know, about the presidential debates.

WASHINGTON (AP) — After months of questions about whether general election debates would happen, President Joe Biden and Republican nominee Donald Trump have agreed to participate in two of them: one in June and one in September.

But there are still some nitty-gritty details to be worked out, including the formats of the events and who will moderate. Here’s what we know so far:

THE DETAILS:

Trump and Biden have agreed to two debates. The first will held at 9 pm. Eastern time on June 27 at CNN’s studios in Atlanta, in a critical battleground state. “To ensure candidates may maximize the time allotted in the debate, no audience will be present,”CNN said in a statement. To qualify, candidates must receive at least 15% in four national polls of registered or likely voters that meet CNN’s standards.

Anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash would moderate the debate, CNN said.

The second debate will take place on Sept. 10 and will be hosted by ABC. While ABC has yet to detail where that debate will take place, the format or its moderators, it set the same 15% polling threshold as CNN.

“It is my great honor to accept the CNN Debate against Crooked Joe Biden,” Trump posted on his Truth Social site. “Likewise, I accept the ABC News Debate against Crooked Joe on September 10th.”

Biden said he’d done the same.

“Trump says he’ll arrange his own transportation,” Biden wrote on X. “I’ll bring my plane, too. I plan on keeping it for another four years.”

THE TIMING

The first debate will play out in a jam-packed and unsettled political calendar, before either candidate becomes his party’s official nominee at the summer conventions — scheduled to begin July 15 for Republicans and Aug. 19 for Democrats.

The June 27 match-up will come after the expected conclusion of Trump’s criminal hush money trial in New York, foreign trips by Biden in mid-June to France and Italy, and the end of the Supreme Court’s term. That term will include a ruling on whether Trump is immune from federal prosecution for his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection. The debate will also come before the expected start of two criminal trials on opposite coasts for the president’s son, Hunter.

The second debate would take place before most states begin early voting — though some overseas and military ballots may already be in the mail.

STICKING POINTS

Trump’s campaign is also pushing for more debates. In a memorandum Wednesday, senior campaign advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles sent a memo to Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon saying, “we believe there should be more than just two opportunities for the American people to hear more from the candidates themselves.” They proposed holding one debate per month, with events in June, July, August and September, in addition to a vice presidential debate.

“Additional dates will allow voters to have maximum exposure to the records and future visions of each candidate,” they wrote. Biden’s campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment on the Trump team’s push for additional match-ups.

Trump has also expressed other preferences. In an interview Wednesday morning with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, he agreed the debates “should go two hours” and also said he’d prefer if the men stand instead of sit.

“A stand-up podium is important,” he said, adding he thinks Biden wants to sit. He also said he would prefer the events take place in larger venues, before a live audience.

“It’s just more exciting,” he said.

The Biden campaign outlined its own preferences in a letter Wednesday. It wants candidates’ microphones muted when they aren’t recognized to speak to promote “orderly proceeding,” and it is opposed to live studio audiences.

“The debates should be conducted for the benefit of the American voters, watching on television and at home — not as entertainment for an in-person audience with raucous or disruptive partisans and donors, who consume valuable debate time with noisy spectacles of approval or jeering,” O’Malley Dillon wrote.

Biden’s camp also argued third-party candidates should be excluded. “The debates should be one-on-one, allowing voters to compare the only two candidates with any statistical chance of prevailing in the Electoral College,” O’Malley Dillon wrote, “not squandering debate time on candidates with no prospect of becoming President.”

There should also, she wrote, “be firm time limits for answers, and alternate turns to speak — so that the time is evenly divided and we have an exchange of views, not a spectacle of mutual interruption.”

DEBATE COMMISSION

The deal between the campaigns now sidelines the Commission on Presidential Debates, the nonpartisan group that has organized them for more than three decades. Both campaigns had expressed longstanding concerns about the commission’s operations, with Trump blaming it for microphone issues during a debate in 2016 and Biden’s campaign calling its plans “out of step with changes in the structure of our elections and the interests of voters.”

Both sides had taken particular issue with the dates the commission had announced, arguing the debates should happen earlier, before voting begins.

In a statement, the debates commission noted it had been “established in 1987 specifically to ensure that such debates reliably take place and reach the widest television, radio and streaming audience. Our 2024 sites, all locations of higher learning, are prepared to host debates on dates chosen to accommodate early voters. We will continue to be ready to execute this plan.”

WHAT ABOUT OTHER NETWORKS?

The debates will be the first televised general election match-ups to be hosted by an individual news organization. The 1960 debates, which helped show the power of the medium to influence public opinion, were hosted jointly by the leading networks of the day, ABC, CBS and NBC. The presidential debates of 1976, 1980 and 1984 were organized by the League of Women Voters, and every debate since has been hosted by the Commission on Presidential Debates.

Traditionally the debates are simulcast across all networks and other streaming outlets to reach the widest possible viewing audience. It was not yet clear whether the 2024 matchups would be shared similarly.

The Biden and Trump teams accepted the invitations from ABC and CNN after the Biden campaign proposed that the debates this year be hosted by any broadcast organization that hosted a Republican primary debate in 2016 and a Democratic primary debate in 2020. In that event, “neither campaign can assert that the sponsoring organization is obviously unacceptable: if both candidates have previously debated on their airwaves, then neither could object to such venue.”

Those criteria would eliminate Fox News, which did not host a Democratic primary debate in 2020, and NBC News, which did not host a GOP one in 2016 — though its corporate affiliates CNBC and Telemundo were co-hosts of one debate each that year.

Trump has said he accepted a debate invitation in October from Fox News, though Biden’s team dismissed it as “playing games.”

HOW WILL THEY PREPARE

Both Biden and Trump are expected to engage in intensive preparation sessions before the debates. Former Biden chief of staff Ron Klain, who now works at Airbnb, told the AP he will use vacation time to help Biden get ready to face off with Trump. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who helped Trump prepare for previous debates seems unlikely to reprise the role, having suffered a falling out with the presumptive GOP nominee.

WHAT ABOUT THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES?

It is unclear whether any third party candidates will qualify for the debates, but both CNN and ABC’s criteria appear to pose an challenge for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. He railed against the plan on X on Wednesday, accusing Trump and Biden of “colluding to lock America into a head-to-head match-up that 70% say they do not want.

“They are trying to exclude me from their debate because they are afraid I would win,”he wrote. “Keeping viable candidates off the debate stage undermines democracy.”

In addition to their polling requirements, both CNN and ABC said that in order to qualify, a candidate’s name must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to qualify that person to reach 270 electoral college votes.

So far, Kennedy has qualified for the general election ballot in three states --California, Michigan and Utah, according to AP Elections Research. He is listed as an independent or minor party candidate in eight more states, but hasn’t yet qualified for the ballot in them. They are Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina. Those 11 states have a combined 123 electoral college votes, meaning he would need to get on the ballot in additional states in order to qualify. (Associated Press).
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Kamala is always busy.

VP Harris was gifted tickets to one of the summer's hottest shows by the artist herself

WASHINGTON -- Vice President Kamala Harris was gifted tickets to one of last summer's hottest concerts by the artist herself: Beyoncé. She also attended college football's HBCU Celebration Bowl, where her alma mater Howard University played Florida A&M, courtesy of ESPN, according to financial disclosure reports released Wednesday.

Harris and her husband Doug Emhoff went to the Renaissance World Tour concert at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland, in August. She posted a picture of the two on Instagram. “Thanks for a fun date night, @Beyonce,” she wrote. The tickets were valued at $1,655.92, according to the disclosures. The December football game was played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Florida A&M won and the tickets Harris received were valued at $1,890.

Personal finance disclosures from the president and vice president are released annually. Neither reported any conflicts of interest. (ABC News).

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Presidential Polls according to Simon Rosenberg.

NYT Releases A Second Poll, This One Has Biden Up 3 - In the you have to be kidding me category yesterday the NYT released a second national poll conducted with a different pollster, Ipsos. This poll did not find the kind of structural weakness for Biden their big Monday poll did. In this poll Biden leads 45.5% to 42.5% (+3) in their initial head to heads between the two candidates.

To understand what an outlier Monday’s NYT battleground states poll was let’s look at the other national and state polls released in recent days (Biden-Trump):

• NPR/Marist 51%-46% (+5) likely voters

• ABC News 49%-45% (+4) likely voters

• NYT/Ipsos 45.5%-42.5% (+3)

• RMG 44%-42% (+2) likely voters

• TIPP 42%-40% (+2)

• Big Village 42%-41% (+1) likely voters

• Data For Progress 47%-46% (+1)

• Economist/YouGov 43%-43% (tied)

• Yahoo/YouGov 45%-45% (tied)

• USA/Suffolk 37%-37% (tied)

• Morning Consult 43%-44% (-1) and 43%-43% (tied)

• Quinnipiac Wisconsin 50%-44% (+6)

• Orbital Digital Arizona 39%-38% (+1)

• CBS News MI 51%-49% PA 49%-50% WI 49%-50%

12 national polls. Biden leads in 7, 4 are tied, Trump leads in 1. State polls by serious credible pollsters showing Biden in far better shape than the NYT polls. All of these polls, with the exception of Data For Progress are independent polls, not controlled or paid for left of center organizations. I include DfP because historically their polling has not been favorable to Democrats. (Hopium Chronicles).

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A chance for the Democratic numbers in the House to grow.

Supreme Court orders Louisiana to hold House elections in 2024 using a map with an additional Black majority district.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court on Wednesday ordered Louisiana to hold congressional elections in 2024 using a House map with a second mostly Black district, despite a lower-court ruling that called the map an illegal racial gerrymander.

The order allows the use of a map that has majority Black populations in two of the state’s six congressional districts, potentially boosting Democrats’ chances of gaining control of the closely divided House of Representatives in the 2024 elections.

The justices acted on emergency appeals filed by the state’s top Republican elected officials and Black voters who said they needed the high court’s intervention to avoid confusion as the elections approach. About a third of Louisiana is Black.

The Supreme Court’s order does not deal with a lower-court ruling that found the map relied too heavily on race. Instead, it only prevents yet another new map from being drawn for this year’s elections.

The Supreme Court could decide at a later date to hear arguments over the decision striking down the Louisiana map.

The court’s three liberal justices dissented from Wednesday’s order. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote that the judges who struck down the latest map should have had the chance to produce a new map before the high court intervened.

“There is little risk of voter confusion from a new map being imposed this far out from the November election,” Jackson wrote.

Liberal justices have dissented from prior Supreme Court orders that put decisions near elections on hold. Those orders invoked the need to give enough time to voters and election officials to ensure orderly balloting. “When an election is close at hand, the rules of the road must be clear and settled,” Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote two years ago in a similar case from Alabama. The court has never set a firm deadline for how close is too close.

Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill said she was pleased with the order. “The Secretary of State has consistently stated she needed a map by May 15,” Murrill said in an emailed statement. “The plaintiffs did not contest it at trial. We will continue to defend the law and are grateful the Supreme Court granted the stay which will ensure we have a stable election season.”

A lawyer for the Black voters praised the court’s action. “We are very relieved that SCOTUS agreed with us that it’s too close to the election to insert uncertainty. ... We will have a map with 2 majority black districts this fall,” Jared Evans, an attorney with the NAACP Legal Defense and Education Fund, wrote in a text using an abbreviation for the Supreme Court.

Edward Greim and Paul Hurd, attorneys for plaintiffs who challenged the new map said Wednesday’s order lets the state impose a “brutal racial gerrymander” on 2024 voters who will cast ballots in districts “segregated by race.” But they predicted eventual victory in the case.

Louisiana has had two congressional maps blocked by federal courts in the past two years in a swirl of lawsuits that included a previous intervention by the Supreme Court.

The state’s Republican-dominated legislature drew a new congressional map in 2022 to account for population shifts reflected in the 2020 Census. But the changes effectively maintained the status quo of five Republican-leaning majority white districts and one Democratic-leaning majority Black district.

Noting the size of the state’s Black population, civil rights advocates challenged the map in a Baton Rouge-based federal court and won a ruling from U.S. District Judge Shelly Dick that the districts likely discriminated against Black voters.

The Supreme Court put Dick’s ruling on hold while it took up a similar case from Alabama. The justices allowed both states to use the maps in the 2022 elections even though both had been ruled likely discriminatory by federal judges.

The high court eventually affirmed the ruling from Alabama and returned the Louisiana case to federal court, with the expectation that new maps would be in place for the 2024 elections.

The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals gave lawmakers in Louisiana a deadline of early 2024 to draw a new map or face the possibility of a court-imposed map.

New Gov. Jeff Landry, a Republican, had defended Louisiana’s congressional map as attorney general. Now, though, he urged lawmakers to pass a new map with another majority Black district at a January special session. He backed a map that created a new majority Black district stretching across the state, linking parts of the Shreveport, Alexandria, Lafayette and Baton Rouge areas.

A different set of plaintiffs, a group of self-described non-African Americans, filed suit in western Louisiana, claiming that the new map was also illegal because it was driven too much by race, in violation of the Constitution. A divided panel of federal judges ruled 2-1 in April in their favor and blocked use of the new map.

Landry and Murrill, a Republican ally, argued that the new map should be used, saying it was adopted with political considerations — not race — as a driving factor. They note that it provides politically safe districts for House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, fellow Republicans. Some lawmakers have also noted that the one Republican whose district is greatly altered in the new map, Rep. Garret Graves, supported a GOP opponent of Landry in last fall’s governor’s race. The change to Graves’ district bolsters the argument that politics was the driving factor rather than race, lawmakers have said.

Voting patterns show a new mostly Black district would give Democrats the chance to capture another House seat and send a second Black representative to Congress from Louisiana. Democratic state Sen. Cleo Fields, a former congressman who is Black, had said he will run for Congress in the new district, if it’s in place for the next election. (Associated Press).

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Inflation eases for first time in 2024. Will it be enough to cut rates?

The first few months of the year brought back the specter of rising inflation during a long fight to bring prices back under control. On Wednesday, the first signs of optimism in 2024 arrived.
New data released from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed prices rose 3.4 percent in April compared with the year before. That’s down a bit from the 3.5 percent notched in March, and the shift follows months of hotter-than-expected reports. Prices rose 0.3 percent compared with the month before.


In a particularly encouraging note, a key reading of inflation known as “core” — which strips out more volatile categories like food and energy — rose 0.3 percent. That measure was up 3.6 percent on an annual basis, the lowest year-over-year increase since 2021. Policymakers pay close attention to that gauge because it helps them tease out stickier sources of inflation from the kinds of rising prices that typically bounce around month to month.(The Washington Post).

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