Sunday, April 21, 2024. Annette’s News Roundup.
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Bonus Roundup. A Little Optimism for All.
Worry Less. Do More.
On Friday, thanks to the Fundraising Jugganaut, the Buddy Group, I listened to an hour call with Simon Rosenberg, the Democratic strategist, recently featured in the New York Times article entitled Many Democrats Are Worried Trump Will Beat Biden. This One Isn’t. You may also have seen him on Lawrence O’Donnell’s The Last Word.
The video and transcript posted here contain much of the same information I heard on Friday.
Simon makes the case that Joe, Kamala and all the Democrats are going to have a great November 5, 2024.
This is his account of some of the reasons for his optimism.
After watching him and reading the transcript of his analysis, you may find that you believe that too, that you share his optimism and are prepared to take actions -big or small - to make this happen.
To repeat, Worry Less. Do More.
Video.👇
This transcript 👇 from Simon’s Hopium Chronicles provides an overview from Simon’s: Why I'm Optimistic We'll Win This Year.
This overview was written before the House voted for $95b aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, and Simon asks us all to take action to help pass the bill.
Though happily you no longer have to contact members of the House to push for the foreign aid bill, this should give you an idea of the kind of actions - large or small - Simon hopes we will all do, as well as the reason for his mantra which I hope you will embrace -
Worry Less. Do More.
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Happy Wednesday all. Got a few things for you today:
Why I’m Optimistic We’ll Win This Year - Last night the Hopium community had its monthly get together. I opened it up with a 20 minute overview of the national political landscape, and then took your questions. You can watch the recording above. In my opening remarks I outlined why we should be optimistic about winning the election this November, which can be summed up this way:
Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off, and we have a very strong case for re-election.
The Democratic Party is strong, unified, raising tons of money and winning elections across the country.
And what do Republicans have? They have Trump, the ugliest political thing we've all ever seen, and a party that increasing looks like a dumpster fire and not a well oiled political machine.
I also discussed the clear recent movement we’ve seen in national polling towards Joe Biden and the Democrats, something many of us believed would happen once the general election began and the Biden campaign turned on.
Since March 25th there have been 23 national polls released. Biden leads in 10, Trump in 8, we are tied in 5. To be clear - Trump no longer leads. It’s a close, competitive election that is moving in our direction.
Here’s the movement towards Biden we’ve seen in some of these polls over the past few months:
8 pts - Marquette
7 pts - Echelon
6 pts - Morning Consult
4 pts - NYT/Siena, HarrisX/Forbes, Redfield and Wilton
3 pts - Big Village
2 pts - Ipsos/Reuters
The NYT poll which came out Sunday showed the race changing from Trump +5 to Trump +1 (great news). The Morning Consult/Politico poll released Monday had Biden up 45-43. Biden was down 4 in Morning Consult’s polling a few weeks ago.
Yesterday, Echelon, a respected Republican pollster, released a poll showing Biden up 3, 49-46, and the Congressional Generic was also +3 Dem. Trump led in this poll by 4 points in February. This poll is a “big yikes” for Rs, and is going to create a bit of a panic in DC Republican circles, as are some of the early first quarter fundraising numbers we get into below.
It’s a new, bluer election. Two thirds of recent Congressional Generics on 538 have Democrats ahead.
Polling remains good for us in the Senate, with no major incumbent struggling, and Slotkin and Gallego in good shape right now.
There has been very little Presidential polling in the battleground states, but there have been polls in recent weeks showing us up in MI, PA and WI, and tied/within margin of error in North Carolina.
This is the Congressional Generic - who will vote for this year for Congress? - in 538 today:
We are also starting to get 1st quarter fundraising reports in for Senate and House candidates, and once again we are seeing that same basic dynamic since Dobbs I talk so much about - heightened Democratic performance, Republican struggle. Here’s Axios this morning, “Democratic Senate candidate rout GOP in fundraising,” and here’s the charts they shared:
Friends, we have a long way to go in this election, and much will change. But right now, almost 7 months out, in every way imaginable, I would much rather be us than them.
New Biden TV Spot Drops In PA - This one is hot off the presses:
Make Calls For Ukraine - Yesterday I asked the Hopium communityto call their House Member and ask them not just to vote for the Ukraine funding bill slated for a vote this Friday, but to fight for it. Please call today, call tomorrow and keep calling to the bill passes the House. These calls matter to House offices, and even if your Member is already committed one way or the other they need to hear from you. Please ask others in your networks to join you in making calls. The stakes here are so high, and we simply must get this done this week.
Here’s a possible message for you to use when calling:
The people of Ukraine have been so brave. They have fought so hard against overwhelming odds, and lost so much. It is time America stands with them and gives them the tools they need to defeat Putin. Please do not just vote for the Ukraine funding bill this Friday, but please fight for it too. Our freedom, and the freedom of the people of the world, depends on what we do this week.
If you don’t know who your Member of Congress is you can find it here. The great Timothy Snyder makes a very powerful case for why we must stand with Ukraine in his Substack. Our paid subscriber chat was loaded yesterday with messages from our community members who made calls, and offered their advice on scripts and strategies. Thank you all for what you did yesterday. The Hopium community stepped up - as it always does. We have to keep working it today. Find time in your day to take this simple step, and let’s keep making calls for Ukraine.
Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here at Hopium we channel all the worry we have about the election into purposeful action. Hopium is a hope with a plan. We don’t just hope we will win this November we do the work to make it so. Right now we are in the final push for three must-win projects - the Biden-Harris campaign, Anderson Clayton/NC Dems and Arizona’s Ruben Gallego. Learn more, donate and volunteer here. Thanks to all of you who’ve stepped up so far!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
From me:
May Simon’s optimism be contagious and carry you through November 5th.
See you tomorrow.
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