The 2026 crop is huge, and running behind last year. Here's the one-minute read.

USDA's August numbers tell a two-sided story: a very big crop on the supply side, but one that's not as healthy as last year, and it's getting harvested into rising costs. Sounds backwards, right? Here's the four numbers that matter, in 60 seconds:

1 · Corn: the second-biggest crop in years is coming

USDA pegs 2026/27 US corn production at 16.01 billion bushels, up 13 million bushels from July and second only to last year's 17.02 billion, on a national yield of 180.7 bu/acre (the first survey-based estimate of the year, trimmed 2.3 bu from July).

So what: Supply, not scarcity, is the story going into harvest. Plan your marketing for a big-crop year, but keep an eye on the yield: USDA is nudging it down, not up.

Source: USDA WASDE / NASS Crop Production, released 2026-08-12, usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0826.txt · release.nass.usda.gov/reports/crop0826.txt

2 · Soybeans are big too, and the price is holding

USDA raised the 2026/27 soybean crop to 4.52 billion bushels (up 44 million from July) on a 52.7 bu/acre yield, left ending stocks near-flat at 320 million bushels, and held the season-average farm price at $11.40/bushel.

So what: A heavier soybean balance sheet that demand is soaking up: a stable price outlook, with the September report and export demand the next things that could move it.

Source: USDA WASDE, released 2026-08-12, usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0826.txt

3 · But the crop is running behind last year

As of August 23, corn was 57% good-to-excellent, versus 71% a year ago, and soybeans 60%, versus 69% last year. Development, meanwhile, is running ahead of the clock: corn is 86% in the dough stage (5-yr average: 82%) and 45% dented (5-yr: 41%), and soybeans are 91% setting pods (5-yr: 88%).

So what: The crop's big because of acreage, not because it's in great shape. Watch whether these ratings keep sliding into the September 11 WASDE.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress, week ending 2026-08-23, released 2026-08-24, release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog3426.txt

4 · Meanwhile, it costs more to get the crop in

The national average on-highway diesel price hit $5.652/gallon on August 24 (up $0.198 in a single week) while roughly 28% of the US corn crop sat in moderate-or-worse drought as of USDA's latest Ag in Drought reading (August 4).

So what: Harvest margins are getting squeezed from the cost side even as the crop comes in big. Budget your fuel accordingly.

Sources: EIA Gasoline & Diesel Update, price date 2026-08-24 (release 2026-08-25), eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel; USDA Ag in Drought (2026-08-04) / US Drought Monitor, droughtmonitor.unl.edu

What to watch next

The September WASDE + Crop Production: Friday, September 11, 12:00 p.m. ET. It carries the next corn and soybean yield update. The single number to watch: does USDA keep cutting the corn yield, or does the big-acreage crop hold? We'll break it down in charts the day it drops.

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